ENCHANT

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$17.45

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $15.27 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.51%

1,319 openings, odds method

Variance

10.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.67%±61.60100 openings

7 days

92.25%±18.201,045 openings

30 days

87.51%±16.291,319 openings

since tracking started

87.51%±16.291,319 openings

24.5%86.8%149.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	100	86.67%±61.6	−0.0σ	odds
7d	1,045	92.25%±18.2	+0.5σ	odds
30d	1,319	87.51%±16.3	−0.0σ	odds
All	1,319	87.51%±16.3	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,319 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 20,000	$6,040	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,263	$1,422	1.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 3,125	$819	1.7%	2	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$783	1.7%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,538	$395	1.7%	0	0.9	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,351	$345	1.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$254	1.7%	1	1.3	0.76×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$171	0.6%	2	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$154	0.5%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$146	0.6%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$135	0.5%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$133	0.6%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$125	0.6%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$120	0.6%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 680	$107	1.0%	2	1.9	1.03×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$104	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$82.85	0.4%	1	1.0	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$75.12	0.5%	1	1.4	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 840	$70.60	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 379	$64.85	1.1%	2	3.5	0.57×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 685	$62.50	0.6%	1	1.9	0.52×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 581	$59.43	0.7%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 339	$58.32	1.1%	4	3.9	1.03×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 541	$55.32	0.7%	2	2.4	0.82×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 297	$54.51	1.2%	3	4.4	0.67×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 230	$54.24	1.5%	5	5.7	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 398	$54.19	0.9%	4	3.3	1.21×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 221	$53.21	1.6%	3	6.0	0.50×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 431	$49.30	0.7%	0	3.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 429	$49.23	0.8%	1	3.1	0.33×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 289	$46.10	1.0%	3	4.6	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$43.70	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 31	$40.70	8.6%	31	42.7	0.73×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 24	$32.64	8.9%	56	54.6	1.02×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 23	$32.16	9.0%	45	56.3	0.80×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$31.42	1.1%	5	7.3	0.68×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$26.29	4.0%	56	30.3	1.85×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 26	$23.33	5.9%	25	50.6	0.49×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	13.0%	$18.34	15.6%	95	171.1	0.56×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$16.58	1.1%	11	13.0	0.85×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 260	$15.86	0.4%	3	5.1	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 826	$15.72	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$15.30	1.2%	16	15.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$11.25	3.4%	66	60.2	1.10×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$10.77	0.7%	8	12.6	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 306	$8.08	0.2%	4	4.3	0.93×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 92	$7.93	0.6%	16	14.3	1.12×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 77	$7.01	0.6%	9	17.2	0.52×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$6.76	0.8%	20	25.2	0.79×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$5.81	0.9%	16	31.7	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 218	$5.74	0.2%	2	6.0	0.33×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$4.64	0.3%	5	11.5	0.43×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 29	$3.70	0.8%	30	44.8	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 94	$3.27	0.2%	10	14.0	0.71×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 67	$3.25	0.3%	17	19.7	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 93	$3.00	0.2%	15	14.2	1.06×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 48	$2.59	0.4%	20	27.6	0.72×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 43	$2.42	0.4%	17	30.6	0.56×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$2.33	0.3%	23	27.8	0.83×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$2.31	0.4%	29	32.8	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$2.30	0.3%	25	28.4	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.84	0.3%	22	33.2	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$1.54	0.3%	29	43.4	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$1.37	0.3%	31	45.9	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$1.31	0.4%	29	55.3	0.52×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$1.22	0.3%	32	54.6	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$1.19	0.3%	41	56.7	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$1.01	0.5%	69	98.3	0.70×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/enchant, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · goldLuchozkill$17.45$83347.74x6d

★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · goldLuchozkill$17.45$83347.73x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Green Energyweapon · pinkHuchi$17.45$8.010.46x2h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$17.45$41.522.38x2h

Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$17.45$1.000.06x2h

AWP | Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6Huchi$17.45$3.440.20x2h

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pinkmorxlesss$17.45$19.081.09x4h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$17.45$1.310.08x4h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$17.45$1.840.11x4h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$17.45$40.702.33x4h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmorxlesss$17.45$26.291.51x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$17.45	87.50%	68
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$17.45	87.46%	68
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$17.45	87.74%	68
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$17.45	87.99%	68
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$17.45	87.75%	68
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$17.45	87.18%	68
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$17.45	87.43%	68
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$17.45	87.75%	68
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$17.45	87.70%	68
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$17.45	87.09%	68
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$17.45	87.12%	68
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$17.45	87.57%	68
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$17.45	87.23%	68
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$17.45	87.80%	68
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$17.45	87.97%	68
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$17.45	88.35%	68
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$17.45	87.72%	68
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$17.45	87.86%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%#ffd700 0.1%gold 0.0%covert 3.2%#d32ee6 0.1%red 8.0%uncommon 0.3%Covert 0.3%pink 18.3%Ancient 4.1%rare 1.9%classified 22.0%Legendary 3.8%#d32ce6 4.9%Mythical 3.3%violet 20.3%#4b69ff 0.9%blue 4.0%common 4.4%best hit $833 (47.74x)