ENERGY
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.60
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.52 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.92%
31.7K openings, odds method
Variance
36.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 37
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.80% – 87.04%, 31,728 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $70.73 | 6.7% | 18 | 15.9 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare | 1 in 366 | $57.67 | 30.0% | 86 | 86.7 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 42 | $6.60 | 29.8% | 617 | 753.4 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 34 | $5.31 | 29.9% | 785 | 937.6 | 0.84× |
| SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 47.2% | $0.02 | 1.8% | 15,539 | 14984.2 | 1.04× |
| Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 47.2% | $0.02 | 1.8% | 14,716 | 14983.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/energy, 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 88.36% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 87.39% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 87.58% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.00% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 88.03% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 88.26% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.79% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 88.28% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 88.00% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 88.19% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.65% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.72% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.30% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 88.38% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%rare 0.3%pink 2.4%Legendary 3.0%gray 94.4%best hit $80.44 (134.1x)