FACEIT

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.00

Advertised RTP

—

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 100,000	$132	2.0%	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$54.81	1.6%	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$38.61	1.7%	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25,000	$10.77	0.6%	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$7.50	1.1%	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 10,000	$5.04	0.7%	—
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,500	$3.44	2.0%	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1.31	3.9%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 137	$0.57	6.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$0.49	10.9%	—
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.42	6.2%	—
R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$0.36	18.6%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.14	12.4%	—
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.08	8.3%	—
SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	32.5%	$0.02	9.6%	—
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	32.5%	$0.02	9.6%	—
Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 13	$0.02	2.2%	—
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 13	$0.02	2.2%	—

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/faceit, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0	—	18
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0	—	18
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0	—	18
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0	—	18
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0	—	18
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0	—	18
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0	—	18
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0	—	18
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0	—	18
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0	—	18
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0	—	18
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0	—	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0	—	18
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0	—	18
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$0	—	18
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0	—	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0	—	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%pink 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 1.7%Mythical 0.7%violet 1.0%blue 3.5%#4b69ff 13.0%gray 65.0%light blue 7.5%Uncommon 7.5%