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FIESTA JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 7 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$833.58
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
74.22%
21 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
21 openings · below min
30 days
21 openings · below min
since tracking started
21 openings · below min
9.5%106.8%204.0%

Small sample. 21 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6106.68%±96.6—sample
7d2174.22%±49.6—sample
30d2174.22%±49.6—sample
All2174.22%±49.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyEL PACO$837$3,7104.43x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$831$2,7183.27x
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$834$1,3481.62x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$831$1,1721.41x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$831$9051.09x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rarekaeryka$826$7940.96x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireSHISHA-MONKEY$834$6320.76x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare$831$57.490.07x
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$831$9051.09x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$831$2,7183.27x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$831$1,1721.41x
★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold$831$70.770.09x
AWP | Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6PaKetoN$831$3950.48x
AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient$826$1690.20x
Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$826$12.100.01x
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$826$35.420.04x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rarekaeryka$826$7940.96x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $3,710 (4.43x)