FLAME
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$200.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $175.00 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.99%
1,916 openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,916 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $8,833 | 20.2% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 175 | $6,040 | 19.7% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 16 | $550 | 19.8% | 119 | 120.7 | 0.99× |
| ★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 12 | $418 | 19.9% | 176 | 159.4 | 1.10× |
| ★ Bayonet | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 16.8% | $207 | 19.9% | 271 | 321.7 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 67.6% | $1.54 | 0.6% | 1,336 | 1295.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/flame, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $200 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $200 | 87.49% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $200 | 87.48% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $200 | 87.94% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $200 | 87.37% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $200 | 87.86% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $200 | 87.31% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $200 | 87.26% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $200 | 87.18% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $200 | 87.55% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $200 | 87.53% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $200 | 87.08% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $200 | 87.23% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $200 | 87.68% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $200 | 87.18% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $200 | 87.02% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.5%contraband 0.6%legendary 6.3%violet 67.6%best hit $8,833 (44.17x)