FLAMES
A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.80
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.70 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.03%
26K openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.59% – 84.46%, 26,027 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/flames, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.80 | 87.50% | 69 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.80 | 87.38% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.80 | 86.67% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.80 | 87.73% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.80 | 86.96% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 87.49% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.80 | 86.77% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.80 | 87.06% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.80 | 87.19% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.80 | 88.49% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.80 | 87.00% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.80 | 86.94% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.80 | 86.81% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.80 | 87.09% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.80 | 87.60% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.80 | 88.25% | 69 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 87.54% | 69 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%pink 0.1%restricted 8.6%#d32ce6 0.0%Mythical 2.6%#8847ff 1.6%blue 32.9%violet 28.2%Restricted 0.5%Rare 0.8%#4b69ff 7.8%mil spec 4.3%blueLight 12.6%best hit $139 (174.0x)