FORG1
A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$11.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $10.06 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.87%
1,776 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,776 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/forg1, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $11.50 | 87.50% | 69 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $11.50 | 87.63% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $11.50 | 87.54% | 69 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $11.50 | 87.48% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $11.50 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $11.50 | 87.71% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $11.50 | 87.55% | 69 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $11.50 | 87.30% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $11.50 | 87.53% | 69 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $11.50 | 87.55% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $11.50 | 87.59% | 69 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $11.50 | 87.20% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $11.50 | 87.34% | 69 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.50 | 87.42% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $11.50 | 87.25% | 69 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $11.50 | 87.43% | 69 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.50 | 87.82% | 69 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%red 5.3%gold 0.1%rare 0.1%Mythical 0.9%Ancient 0.1%classified 18.4%blue 9.0%pink 18.3%Rare 5.5%restricted 19.4%Legendary 1.3%#d32ee6 2.8%#8847ff 11.6%violet 5.1%mil spec 1.1%best hit —