GOLD SHOT
A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.20
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.18 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.90%
77.7K openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.97% – 82.83%, 77,718 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/gold-shot, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.20 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.20 | 87.04% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.20 | 88.08% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.20 | 86.73% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.20 | 83.99% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.20 | 84.63% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.20 | 87.28% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.20 | 85.34% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.20 | 86.75% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.20 | 86.74% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.20 | 89.51% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.20 | 88.95% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 22:37 UTC | $0.20 | 87.50% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.20 | 92.26% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.20 | 89.64% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.20 | 89.06% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.20 | 88.00% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.20 | 87.62% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%pink 2.7%#8847ff 0.0%violet 4.0%blue 61.7%light blue 10.2%milspec 21.3%best hit —