HEATONCS
A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $21.87 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.00%
1,212 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,212 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/heatoncs, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.68% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 87.48% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 87.60% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.93% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 88.01% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 87.77% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.41% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.65% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 87.93% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.46% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 87.55% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.68% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $25.00 | 87.70% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.47% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.74% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.9%legendary 0.0%classified 21.9%gold 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%sunny 0.1%red 7.5%restricted 5.8%industrial 3.3%Mythical 12.5%mil spec 2.0%blue 4.7%uncommon 2.4%Industrial Grade 4.7%Legendary 3.3%pink 5.1%violet 10.9%Classified 2.0%#d32ee6 2.5%best hit —