HERA
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.09 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.03%
12.5K openings, odds method
Variance
14.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.25% – 85.81%, 12,546 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/hera, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.25 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.25 | 88.19% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.25 | 88.16% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.25 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.25 | 88.05% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.25 | 88.32% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.25 | 87.94% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.25 | 88.26% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.25 | 87.64% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.25 | 88.02% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.25 | 87.97% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.25 | 88.20% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.25 | 87.92% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.25 | 88.28% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.25 | 88.37% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.25 | 87.66% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.25 | 87.89% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.2%red 0.2%#d32ee6 0.3%violet 13.6%pink 1.0%Legendary 4.0%#8847ff 3.0%restricted 9.5%gray 68.2%best hit $601 (480.5x)