HOT DAY

A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$4.15

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.63 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.42%

10.6K openings, odds method

Variance

3.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.09%±9.571,590 openings

7 days

84.53%±4.178,399 openings

30 days

84.42%±3.7010.6K openings

since tracking started

84.42%±3.7010.6K openings

72.0%82.3%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,590	82.09%±9.57	−1.1σ	odds
7d	8,399	84.53%±4.17	−1.4σ	odds
30d	10.6K	84.42%±3.70	−1.6σ	odds
All	10.6K	84.42%±3.70	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$774	0.6%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$424	0.8%	2	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$360	1.0%	1	1.1	0.95×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$153	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$86.28	1.2%	1	5.3	0.19×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$54.24	1.2%	7	8.5	0.83×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$43.45	1.2%	9	10.6	0.85×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$42.81	1.2%	5	10.6	0.47×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 556	$23.44	1.2%	17	19.0	0.89×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 526	$23.00	1.2%	15	20.1	0.75×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,500	$16.85	0.2%	5	4.2	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 2,000	$16.70	0.2%	16	5.3	3.02×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 222	$14.59	1.8%	41	47.6	0.86×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$12.03	4.4%	114	139.6	0.82×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$10.78	7.5%	138	268.7	0.51×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$10.77	3.5%	43	124.8	0.34×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$10.24	2.6%	59	96.3	0.61×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 149	$9.60	1.8%	71	70.9	1.00×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 141	$9.32	1.8%	47	75.1	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 123	$8.68	1.9%	49	85.7	0.57×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 270	$8.47	0.9%	23	39.1	0.59×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$8.41	5.0%	215	227.4	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$8.29	2.0%	51	94.2	0.54×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 200	$7.89	1.1%	43	52.9	0.81×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$6.93	2.4%	95	135.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$6.76	1.8%	74	101.6	0.73×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$6.70	2.5%	78	144.9	0.54×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 108	$6.65	1.7%	56	98.4	0.57×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$5.81	2.0%	85	133.3	0.64×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 185	$5.77	0.9%	38	57.1	0.67×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 108	$5.71	1.5%	74	98.4	0.75×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$5.59	1.3%	36	87.8	0.41×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$5.50	1.4%	67	95.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$5.30	1.3%	53	97.3	0.54×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 103	$5.16	1.4%	67	102.6	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$4.76	4.9%	333	391.4	0.85×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 73	$4.70	1.8%	93	144.9	0.64×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$4.37	2.5%	151	222.2	0.68×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 68	$4.33	1.7%	95	154.5	0.62×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$4.30	1.8%	90	156.6	0.57×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$3.94	1.1%	79	111.1	0.71×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$3.71	1.2%	91	124.8	0.73×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 77	$3.47	1.2%	97	137.5	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$2.51	3.5%	522	535.3	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$2.11	1.0%	120	180.9	0.66×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$2.04	1.0%	107	189.4	0.57×
Sticker \| Winding Scorchsticker · pink	1 in 18	$1.89	2.9%	593	598.8	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$1.86	1.0%	155	215.8	0.72×
SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 15	$1.22	2.3%	705	714.1	0.99×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$1.00	2.0%	794	772.3	1.03×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.00	2.0%	807	772.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.85	1.8%	843	825.2	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.82	1.8%	874	836.8	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 11	$0.63	1.5%	998	934.1	1.07×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/hot-day, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBrzo Trci Pavke$4.15$39695.36x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary$4.15$37289.59x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specmɅck$4.15$1.000.24x1m

SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New)weapon · gray$4.15$1.180.28x2m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$4.15$8.992.17x2m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$4.15$1.070.26x2m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specmɅck$4.15$1.070.26x2m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violetZevkLast`iN$4.15$0.850.20x26m

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violetTHE DECOY MAN$4.15$0.820.20x2h

Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violetTHE DECOY MAN$4.15$2.510.60x2h

MAC-10 | Derailmentweapon · violetTHE DECOY MAN$4.15$2.000.48x2h

SCAR-20 | Cardiacweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$4.15$10.642.56x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$4.15	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$4.15	87.57%	54
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$4.15	87.42%	54
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.15	87.57%	54
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$4.15	87.41%	54
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.15	87.45%	54
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$4.15	87.57%	54
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$4.15	87.54%	54
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$4.15	87.30%	54
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$4.15	87.34%	54
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$4.15	87.53%	54
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$4.15	87.31%	54
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$4.15	87.37%	54
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.15	87.41%	54
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$4.15	87.42%	54
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$4.15	87.71%	54
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.15	87.73%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%restricted 7.3%legendary 0.0%covert 0.2%rare 0.2%red 0.1%classified 1.1%uncommon 3.8%#d32ce6 1.0%Legendary 0.4%pink 26.6%#8847ff 3.2%Mythical 1.3%violet 31.9%gray 15.6%mil spec 7.3%best hit $396 (95.36x)