HOT PIE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$5.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.37 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.23%

59.4K openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.69%±2.1728.5K openings

7 days

85.23%±1.5159.4K openings

30 days

85.23%±1.5159.4K openings

since tracking started

85.23%±1.5159.4K openings

83.0%85.8%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.72% – 86.75%, 59,421 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28.5K	85.69%±2.17	−1.8σ	odds
7d	59.4K	85.23%±1.51	−3.4σ	odds
30d	59.4K	85.23%±1.51	−3.4σ	odds
All	59.4K	85.23%±1.51	−3.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 33,333	$934	0.6%	1	2.0	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$556	0.9%	4	4.6	0.88×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$393	0.9%	1	6.5	0.15×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 10,000	$312	0.7%	6	6.5	0.92×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 5,000	$132	0.6%	10	13.0	0.77×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$81.30	0.2%	6	6.5	0.92×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$58.10	0.1%	3	6.5	0.46×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$53.18	0.1%	7	6.5	1.08×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$53.10	0.1%	3	6.5	0.46×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$52.50	0.1%	2	6.5	0.31×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$43.99	0.1%	6	6.5	0.92×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$41.56	0.1%	1	6.5	0.15×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$33.91	0.1%	1	6.5	0.15×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$31.79	0.1%	7	6.5	1.08×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$27.90	0.1%	6	13.0	0.46×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,000	$26.52	0.3%	33	32.5	1.01×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 625	$22.76	0.8%	75	104.1	0.72×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$22.06	0.3%	29	32.5	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$20.25	0.2%	18	32.5	0.55×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,429	$19.34	0.3%	26	45.5	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 244	$15.69	1.5%	175	266.8	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 222	$14.95	1.5%	184	292.8	0.63×
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$14.00	4.1%	857	832.8	1.03×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 24	$10.27	9.8%	2,622	2726.2	0.96×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 24	$10.13	9.8%	2,652	2758.8	0.96×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$7.44	5.2%	2,063	1991.0	1.04×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 30	$6.84	5.2%	2,098	2166.7	0.97×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 53	$5.80	2.5%	765	1216.7	0.63×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 44	$5.29	2.7%	871	1464.0	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$5.13	5.2%	2,794	2888.9	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 16	$4.82	7.1%	4,122	4190.2	0.98×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$4.15	2.9%	1,368	1997.5	0.68×
Sticker \| Taste Buddysticker · violet	1 in 14	$3.96	6.3%	4,466	4515.5	0.99×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.40	3.1%	1,588	2635.1	0.60×
M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$2.70	5.0%	5,322	5263.8	1.01×
P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 12	$2.49	4.8%	5,234	5432.9	0.96×
P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 12	$2.43	4.7%	5,402	5491.5	0.98×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 11	$1.96	4.1%	6,124	5979.5	1.02×
Sticker \| Winding Scorchsticker · pink	1 in 11	$1.89	4.0%	6,401	6070.6	1.05×
Sticker \| Cedar Creeksticker · violet	10.0%	$1.56	3.6%	6,776	6532.5	1.04×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/hot-pie, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$5.00$934186.8x20h

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.00$585116.9x1d

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.00$557111.3x2h

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedH U N T E R$5.00$556111.3x15h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$5.00$39378.52x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · goldgun1CS$5.00$32464.88x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · goldMr.C$5.00$32464.88x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold$5.00$32464.88x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJoseluiis37$5.00$2.430.49x18s

UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violetJoseluiis37$5.00$5.131.03x26s

Sticker | Winding Scorchsticker · pinkUsNow$5.00$1.890.38x48s

AK-47 | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkUsNow$5.00$5.521.10x56s

P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUsNow$5.00$2.430.49x1m

MP7 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · grayJoseluiis37$5.00$1.960.39x1m

P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerUsNow$5.00$2.430.49x1m

P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJoseluiis37$5.00$2.490.50x1m

M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)weapon · blueUsNow$5.00$2.700.54x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$5.00	87.50%	40
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$5.00	87.90%	40
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$5.00	88.00%	40
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.00	88.11%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%restricted 0.0%gold 0.0%sunny 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%rare 0.1%pink 17.4%violet 21.6%Legendary 2.3%uncommon 0.1%classified 1.3%Mil Spec Grade 4.2%blue 18.7%Classified 1.9%gray 15.6%consumer 16.8%best hit $934 (186.8x)