HYPER

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.80

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.70 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.29%

82.3K openings, odds method

Variance

6.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.79%±4.9010.3K openings

7 days

81.63%±1.9269.6K openings

30 days

81.29%±1.7782.3K openings

since tracking started

81.29%±1.7782.3K openings

76.0%82.3%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.74% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.52% – 83.06%, 82,347 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10.3K	81.79%±4.90	−2.4σ	odds
7d	69.6K	81.63%±1.92	−6.2σ	odds
30d	82.3K	81.29%±1.77	−7.1σ	odds
All	82.3K	81.29%±1.77	−7.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100,000	$418	0.6%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$216	0.6%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$144	0.6%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$73.13	0.5%	1	4.1	0.24×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$35.40	0.5%	6	8.3	0.72×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$33.91	0.4%	3	6.6	0.45×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,778	$9.66	0.5%	19	29.8	0.64×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,439	$7.89	0.5%	10	33.9	0.29×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,299	$6.54	0.7%	36	63.7	0.56×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 629	$5.29	1.2%	100	131.6	0.76×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 893	$4.70	0.8%	43	92.7	0.46×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,010	$4.09	0.6%	36	82.0	0.44×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 855	$3.76	0.6%	117	96.9	1.21×
P90 \| Facility Negative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$2.14	26.5%	6,400	7183.5	0.89×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$1.00	11.1%	5,674	6440.1	0.88×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.54	3.3%	1,415	3499.9	0.40×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.50	3.5%	1,867	4081.8	0.46×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.50	6.8%	7,573	7860.6	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.50	2.1%	980	2441.1	0.40×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.45	2.3%	1,309	3013.1	0.43×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.45	2.3%	1,380	3012.3	0.46×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.6%	$0.45	6.8%	8,740	8733.9	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.6%	$0.45	6.8%	8,666	8733.9	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.8%	$0.44	6.8%	9,264	8932.6	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.8%	$0.44	6.8%	9,754	8932.6	1.09×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.3%	$0.42	6.8%	10,109	9358.1	1.08×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/hyper-2, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.80$78.6498.30x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet79valentino$0.80$0.440.55x18s

Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet???????? ⁧⁧ tracc$0.80$0.450.56x1m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.440.55x2m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.450.56x2m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.440.55x2m

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.500.63x2m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violetm0nesy$0.80$0.440.55x2m

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetASap$0.80$1.001.25x2m

P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.420.52x2m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violetASap$0.80$0.450.56x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.80	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.80	88.39%	26
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.80	87.99%	26
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.80	88.37%	26
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.80	87.94%	26
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.80	87.27%	26
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.80	87.72%	26
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.80	88.31%	26
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.80	87.33%	26
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.80	86.93%	26
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.80	86.97%	26
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.80	87.32%	26
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.80	88.22%	26
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.80	87.72%	26
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.80	87.31%	26
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.80	87.86%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.80	88.36%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 0.2%uncommon 0.2%#d32ee6 0.1%pink 0.2%blue 8.7%violet 90.7%best hit $78.64 (98.30x)