IM BACK
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.37 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.39%
9,665 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,671 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/im-back, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.00 | 87.50% | 53 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.00 | 87.04% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.00 | 86.52% | 53 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.00 | 87.16% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.00 | 86.70% | 53 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.00 | 88.31% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.00 | 87.11% | 53 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.00 | 87.62% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.00 | 86.65% | 53 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.00 | 87.03% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.00 | 86.65% | 53 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.00 | 88.09% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.00 | 87.00% | 53 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.00 | 88.00% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.00 | 87.39% | 53 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.00 | 88.31% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%gold 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%rare 0.0%restricted 5.9%pink 27.3%uncommon 2.9%classified 2.1%violet 16.9%#d32ce6 1.8%Mythical 6.7%consumer 4.1%blue 4.2%#8847ff 4.4%gray 11.5%Consumer Grade 5.8%grey 6.0%best hit $633 (126.6x)