IMMORTAL

A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$40.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $35.00 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.68%

3,357 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.26%±18.90472 openings

7 days

83.82%±7.672,931 openings

30 days

85.68%±7.183,357 openings

since tracking started

85.68%±7.183,357 openings

68.5%88.3%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	472	88.26%±18.9	+0.1σ	odds
7d	2,931	83.82%±7.67	−1.0σ	odds
30d	3,357	85.68%±7.18	−0.6σ	odds
All	3,357	85.68%±7.18	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,357 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| HellRaisers \| Katowice 2014sticker · violet	1 in 33,333	$9,513	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| Katowice 2014sticker · violet	1 in 14,286	$6,418	1.3%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Vox Eminor \| Katowice 2015sticker · high	1 in 5,000	$1,963	1.1%	0	0.7	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Cologne 2014sticker · violet	1 in 14,286	$1,032	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014sticker · high	1 in 5,882	$344	0.2%	1	0.6	—
Sticker \| Cloud9 G2A \| Katowice 2015sticker · high	1 in 5,263	$322	0.2%	2	0.6	—
Sticker \| 3DMAX \| Katowice 2015sticker · violet	1 in 4,348	$257	0.2%	1	0.8	—
Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Katowice 2015sticker · pink	1 in 3,226	$186	0.2%	2	1.0	1.92×
Sticker \| Team Liquid \| Atlanta 2017sticker · pink	1 in 184	$132	2.1%	6	18.3	0.33×
Sticker \| Tyloo \| Boston 2018sticker · violet	1 in 166	$119	2.1%	10	20.2	0.49×
Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014sticker · pink	1 in 150	$108	2.1%	16	22.4	0.72×
Sticker \| rox \| Antwerp 2022sticker · pink	1 in 146	$105	2.1%	8	23.0	0.35×
Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Cologne 2014sticker · violet	1 in 142	$102	2.1%	16	23.7	0.68×
Sticker \| Team EnVyUs \| Katowice 2015sticker · pink	1 in 27	$81.52	8.6%	32	124.4	0.26×
Sticker \| Flipsid3 Tactics \| Boston 2018sticker · pink	1 in 23	$68.95	8.6%	47	147.1	0.32×
Sticker \| Astralis \| Cologne 2016sticker · pink	1 in 34	$55.75	4.7%	28	98.8	0.28×
Sticker \| Copenhagen Wolves \| Cologne 2014sticker · violet	1 in 31	$50.89	4.7%	41	108.3	0.38×
Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming \| Cologne 2016sticker · pink	1 in 31	$50.27	4.7%	37	109.6	0.34×
Sticker \| Headhuntersticker · pink	1 in 27	$45.00	4.7%	111	122.4	0.91×
Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frogsticker · pink	1 in 18	$37.19	5.9%	215	184.9	1.16×
Sticker \| Gambit Gaming \| Atlanta 2017sticker · pink	1 in 18	$35.17	5.7%	67	188.8	0.35×
Sticker \| mousesports \| Krakow 2017sticker · violet	1 in 17	$30.50	5.2%	65	199.9	0.33×
Sticker \| Fnatic \| Cologne 2014sticker · violet	1 in 17	$30.31	5.2%	69	200.4	0.34×
Sticker \| Keyd Stars \| Katowice 2015sticker · blue	1 in 16	$28.67	5.0%	205	204.9	1.00×
Sticker \| OpTic Gaming \| Atlanta 2017sticker · high	1 in 16	$27.59	4.9%	217	208.0	1.04×
Sticker \| North \| Boston 2018sticker · violet	1 in 16	$27.56	4.9%	87	208.1	0.42×
Sticker \| mousesports \| London 2018sticker · violet	1 in 16	$27.12	4.8%	68	209.5	0.32×
Sticker \| Healthsticker · pink	1 in 11	$11.83	2.9%	318	291.9	1.09×
Sticker \| Move Itsticker · blue	1 in 11	$11.37	2.9%	307	296.6	1.04×
Sticker \| Lucassticker · pink	10.2%	$7.97	2.3%	335	341.6	0.98×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/immortal, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$40.00$2,00850.21x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017sticker · high✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$27.590.69x25s

Sticker | OpTic Gaming | Atlanta 2017sticker · high✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$29.400.74x42s

Sticker | North (Holo) | Boston 2018sticker · violet$40.00$27.560.69x42s

Sticker | rox (Holo) | Antwerp 2022sticker · pink$40.00$1042.59x42s

Sticker | Flipsid3 Tactics (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · pink$40.00$68.951.72x42s

Sticker | mousesports | Krakow 2017sticker · violet✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$30.500.76x1m

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | Krakow 2017sticker · violet✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$30.500.76x1m

Sticker | mousesports (Holo) | London 2018sticker · violet$40.00$26.940.67x1m

Sticker | Healthsticker · pink$40.00$11.950.30x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$40.00	87.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$40.00	87.72%	30
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$40.00	87.71%	30
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$40.00	87.84%	30
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$40.00	87.78%	30
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$40.00	87.81%	30
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$40.00	87.74%	30
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$40.00	87.88%	30
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$40.00	87.82%	30
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	30
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$40.00	87.86%	30
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$40.00	88.00%	30
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$40.00	87.64%	30
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$40.00	87.76%	30
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$40.00	87.65%	30
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$40.00	87.94%	30
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.00	87.99%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedviolet 28.9%high 6.3%pink 49.9%blue 14.9%best hit $2,008 (50.21x)