JUNGLE WILDS
A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.22 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.54%
298K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.51% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.21% – 81.88%, 297,845 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 299K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/jungle-wilds, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.25 | 87.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.25 | 85.87% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.25 | 85.10% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.25 | 85.13% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.25 | 83.98% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.25 | 87.06% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.25 | 88.15% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.25 | 87.05% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.25 | 87.03% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.25 | 86.87% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.25 | 87.15% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.25 | 87.03% | 21 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.25 | 87.35% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.25 | 87.38% | 21 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.25 | 87.65% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 81.56% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%violet 18.0%blue 57.2%Mythical 0.9%Rare 7.6%light blue 8.0%milspec 8.2%best hit $18.23 (72.92x)