KATANA

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$95.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $83.12 from 88 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.19%

4,667 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.16%±10.04732 openings

7 days

84.25%±4.623,621 openings

30 days

85.19%±4.074,667 openings

since tracking started

85.19%±4.074,667 openings

68.5%79.3%90.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	732	79.16%±10.0	−1.6σ	odds
7d	3,621	84.25%±4.62	−1.4σ	odds
30d	4,667	85.19%±4.07	−1.1σ	odds
All	4,667	85.19%±4.07	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values88 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,667 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$8,833	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 7,692	$4,046	0.6%	0	0.6	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$3,547	0.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 5,000	$2,256	0.5%	2	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,192	0.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$1,108	1.1%	3	3.7	0.80×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 909	$814	1.1%	3	5.1	0.58×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 667	$626	1.1%	14	7.0	2.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$401	0.2%	3	1.9	1.61×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 417	$379	1.1%	8	11.2	0.71×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 128	$312	2.9%	42	36.4	1.15×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 123	$300	2.9%	41	37.8	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 123	$299	2.9%	30	37.8	0.79×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 294	$287	1.2%	17	15.9	1.07×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$285	0.8%	5	10.3	0.49×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3	1 in 116	$283	2.9%	49	40.1	1.22×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 106	$258	2.9%	40	43.9	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$257	0.8%	9	12.6	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$252	0.8%	11	13.1	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$238	0.2%	4	3.3	1.22×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$197	1.2%	13	23.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$190	2.0%	26	41.5	0.63×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 82	$188	2.8%	38	56.9	0.67×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 45	$172	4.6%	105	103.1	1.02×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$170	1.4%	27	32.2	0.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 43	$162	4.6%	87	109.2	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$154	1.1%	19	27.1	0.70×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 73	$153	2.5%	50	63.9	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$146	1.1%	21	29.9	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$144	1.1%	26	30.8	0.84×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 63	$140	2.7%	57	73.7	0.77×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$139	3.0%	52	84.0	0.62×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$135	1.6%	31	45.7	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$133	1.8%	25	53.7	0.47×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$129	1.7%	31	49.9	0.62×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$126	0.9%	23	28.0	0.82×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$125	1.7%	27	54.1	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 323	$124	0.5%	5	14.5	0.35×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$122	2.9%	53	92.4	0.57×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$120	1.8%	36	57.9	0.62×
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$110	1.2%	37	41.1	0.90×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$110	3.8%	74	134.4	0.55×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 161	$104	0.8%	14	28.9	0.48×
AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 156	$94.92	0.7%	24	29.9	0.80×
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$92.46	0.7%	35	30.3	1.15×
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$91.11	0.7%	29	30.8	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$89.67	0.7%	29	30.8	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 52	$89.57	2.1%	91	90.5	1.01×
AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 145	$87.90	0.7%	37	32.2	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$75.12	0.7%	33	34.1	0.97×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$70.80	0.7%	31	39.2	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 127	$70.60	0.7%	29	36.9	0.79×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 159	$67.00	0.5%	20	29.4	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$64.85	0.7%	35	41.5	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$64.31	0.7%	30	42.0	0.71×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 143	$62.50	0.5%	20	32.7	0.61×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$59.97	0.5%	20	32.2	0.62×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$56.68	0.5%	23	35.0	0.66×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 120	$55.32	0.6%	31	38.7	0.80×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$55.21	0.5%	32	36.4	0.88×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$54.24	0.8%	46	56.5	0.81×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$54.19	0.9%	47	62.1	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$53.21	0.8%	68	57.9	1.18×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$53.04	0.5%	37	38.3	0.97×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$52.52	0.5%	24	38.7	0.62×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 51	$49.85	1.2%	71	91.0	0.78×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 103	$49.30	0.6%	27	45.3	0.60×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 102	$49.23	0.6%	35	45.7	0.77×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 47	$46.96	1.2%	73	98.9	0.74×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$46.68	0.6%	30	48.5	0.62×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$42.84	0.6%	32	55.1	0.58×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 51	$40.70	1.0%	81	92.4	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 109	$40.27	0.4%	30	42.9	0.70×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 76	$39.44	0.6%	48	61.6	0.78×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 98	$37.60	0.5%	42	47.6	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 91	$35.42	0.5%	31	51.3	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 81	$32.83	0.5%	39	57.4	0.68×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$26.29	0.3%	34	42.5	0.80×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 116	$24.06	0.2%	39	40.1	0.97×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 120	$23.33	0.2%	17	38.7	0.44×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$18.34	0.3%	52	70.0	0.74×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$16.58	0.3%	68	80.7	0.84×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$15.30	0.4%	62	90.1	0.69×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$12.18	0.3%	78	104.1	0.75×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$10.77	0.3%	95	113.4	0.84×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$7.33	0.4%	182	212.3	0.86×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$6.76	0.4%	169	217.9	0.78×
Sticker \| Leaving The Stationsticker · violet	1 in 10	$5.19	0.6%	500	463.4	1.08×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/katana, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$95.00$2,36424.88x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$95.00$2,33324.56x1d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert@oldschoolfps$95.00$1,17212.33x7d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert$95.00$1,17112.33x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$95.00$9149.63x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert???????????????????????????? シ$95.00$9089.56x18h

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert???????????????????????????? シ$95.00$8148.57x18h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$95.00$6396.72x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1INODORO$95.00$6396.72x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Meshknife · goldCODE TOROCHO$95.00$48.340.51x13m

Desert Eagle | Printstreamweapon · redPro MMA Fighter$95.00$53.360.56x13m

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$95.00$53.510.56x14m

P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$95.00$12.100.13x14m

P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$95.00$7.220.08x14m

AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$95.00$53.170.56x14m

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$95.00$1631.72x14m

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPro MMA Fighter$95.00$56.620.60x14m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$95.00$17.410.18x15m

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covertCODE TOROCHO$95.00$46.360.49x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$95.00	87.50%	88
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$95.00	87.68%	88
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$95.00	87.48%	88
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$95.00	87.58%	88
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$95.00	87.40%	88
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$95.00	87.60%	88
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$95.00	87.74%	88
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$95.00	87.49%	88
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$95.00	87.58%	88
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$95.00	87.59%	88
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$95.00	87.48%	88
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$95.00	87.52%	88
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$95.00	87.57%	88
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$95.00	87.74%	88
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$95.00	87.33%	88
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$95.00	87.48%	88
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$95.00	87.60%	88

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 47.2%legendary 0.0%classified 6.1%extraordinary 1.6%gold 5.7%rare 0.3%red 9.9%uncommon 1.5%Ancient 2.2%pink 14.7%Legendary 0.8%violet 9.9%best hit $2,364 (24.88x)