LAST PICNIC

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $17.50 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.92%

38.3K openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.11%±2.0016.5K openings

7 days

86.92%±1.3138.3K openings

30 days

86.92%±1.3138.3K openings

since tracking started

86.92%±1.3138.3K openings

83.5%86.3%89.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16.5K	86.11%±2.00	−1.5σ	odds
7d	38.3K	86.92%±1.31	−1.3σ	odds
30d	38.3K	86.92%±1.31	−1.3σ	odds
All	38.3K	86.92%±1.31	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50,000	$2,204	0.3%	0	0.8	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$1,707	0.3%	1	1.3	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$1,445	0.4%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 10,000	$1,120	0.6%	4	4.2	0.96×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$602	0.7%	12	8.3	1.44×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 3,333	$322	0.6%	20	12.5	1.60×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$209	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$207	0.1%	2	4.2	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$172	0.1%	5	4.2	1.20×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,429	$150	0.6%	33	29.2	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$89.33	0.2%	15	16.7	0.90×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 556	$82.70	0.9%	73	75.1	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$82.41	0.2%	10	16.7	0.60×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$76.89	0.2%	13	20.9	0.62×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$71.65	0.2%	13	25.0	0.52×
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 85	$69.38	4.6%	269	488.5	0.55×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$53.97	1.4%	196	196.2	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$50.22	1.5%	266	225.4	1.18×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$48.53	3.2%	301	480.1	0.63×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 29	$46.27	9.1%	1,473	1436.2	1.03×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 52	$40.98	4.5%	535	805.8	0.66×
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50	$40.24	4.6%	561	835.0	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$27.36	1.9%	345	505.2	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$22.79	2.3%	527	726.4	0.73×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 20	$22.76	6.5%	2,092	2074.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$22.32	2.3%	496	755.7	0.66×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$20.39	6.5%	2,345	2312.9	1.01×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 10	$18.09	10.2%	4,014	4124.8	0.97×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	11.2%	$13.38	8.5%	4,573	4659.2	0.98×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 19	$12.16	3.7%	1,511	2200.2	0.69×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	11.6%	$12.08	8.0%	4,799	4855.4	0.99×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 15	$10.13	3.9%	1,852	2843.1	0.65×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	14.1%	$7.44	6.0%	6,005	5895.0	1.02×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue	14.6%	$6.84	5.7%	6,274	6103.7	1.03×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/last-picnic, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$20.00$1,70885.38x5m

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$20.00$1,43471.72x22h

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalPaeM$20.00$1,12055.99x22h

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortaluchiha_sasuke$20.00$1,12055.99x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal$20.00$1,12055.99x1d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertTri$20.00$61930.95x1d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertkOUKi-$20.00$61930.95x2d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertM 4 l 3 !$20.00$61530.74x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violetPAU HENRY$20.00$22.761.14xnow

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violetPAU HENRY$20.00$22.761.14x12s

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · bluePAU HENRY$20.00$6.840.34x20s

FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blueChicken.exe$20.00$7.440.37x26s

Souvenir P250 | Black & TanSouvenir · weapon · bluePAU HENRY$20.00$11.020.55x28s

Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumerPAU HENRY$20.00$46.272.31x36s

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blueSunflower$20.00$6.840.34x39s

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSunflower$20.00$20.391.02x47s

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blueSunflower$20.00$6.840.34x55s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$20.00	87.50%	34
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$20.00	87.94%	34
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$20.00	87.90%	34
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$20.00	87.98%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.4%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.0%red 2.0%blue 52.6%milspec 1.2%consumer 3.4%Ancient 2.0%pink 3.0%classified 1.7%violet 26.0%mil spec 5.5%best hit $1,708 (85.38x)