LAZURE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.31 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.63%

8,513 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.55%±7.781,223 openings

7 days

89.87%±2.717,402 openings

30 days

89.63%±2.488,513 openings

since tracking started

89.63%±2.488,513 openings

82.0%90.5%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,223	90.55%±7.78	+0.7σ	odds
7d	7,402	89.87%±2.71	+1.4σ	odds
30d	8,513	89.63%±2.48	+1.3σ	odds
All	8,513	89.63%±2.48	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,524 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 16,667	$163	0.7%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$92.17	0.6%	3	0.8	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$14.20	0.6%	2	4.7	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,562	$12.38	0.6%	3	5.5	0.55×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,429	$11.32	0.6%	4	6.0	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$10.60	0.6%	7	6.4	1.09×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,235	$9.74	0.6%	5	6.9	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,111	$8.77	0.6%	5	7.7	0.65×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$4.67	17.5%	218	419.0	0.52×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$3.71	7.5%	188	225.5	0.83×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 30	$2.96	7.5%	320	282.7	1.13×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$2.49	2.5%	461	111.7	4.13×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.45	7.5%	353	341.6	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$1.34	7.1%	581	589.9	0.98×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.24	4.5%	219	406.3	0.54×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$1.22	6.7%	555	612.5	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$1.21	6.6%	549	614.6	0.89×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.16	6.5%	574	625.0	0.92×
P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.01	6.0%	611	660.6	0.92×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.69	4.7%	707	769.4	0.92×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.7%	$0.45	3.7%	852	912.8	0.93×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.1%	$0.41	3.5%	988	947.4	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.3%	$0.39	3.4%	875	966.6	0.91×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/lazure, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold$1.50$178118.5x4d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedkhzx$1.50$88.8559.23x3d

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.50$85.9557.30x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec☣Zypki☣$1.50$1.340.89x6m

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec☣Zypki☣$1.50$1.330.89x6m

UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1.50$1.220.81x6m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$1.50$0.450.30x6m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$1.50$0.720.48x6m

SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847fflegenda$1.50$2.961.97x12m

SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$1.50$1.160.77x12m

SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847fflegenda$1.50$2.971.98x12m

SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$1.50$1.180.79x12m

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHungng$1.50$0.390.26x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$1.50	87.50%	23
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$1.50	87.76%	23
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$1.50	87.72%	23
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.50	87.59%	23
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.50	87.81%	23
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.50	88.07%	23
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.50	87.94%	23
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.50	87.77%	23
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.50	88.08%	23
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.50	88.11%	23
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.50	88.44%	23
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.50	87.73%	23
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.50	88.45%	23
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.50	88.35%	23
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.50	88.34%	23
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.50	88.33%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.50	88.29%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%classified 0.3%Mythical 11.3%#8847ff 11.2%violet 45.4%restricted 17.7%mil spec 14.1%best hit $178 (118.5x)