LORD

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.94

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.45 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.75%

7,258 openings, odds method

Variance

52.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 136

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.67%±44.91999 openings

7 days

84.73%±17.805,980 openings

30 days

81.75%±16.217,258 openings

since tracking started

81.75%±16.217,258 openings

50.0%95.5%141.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	999	95.67%±44.9	+0.4σ	odds
7d	5,980	84.73%±17.8	−0.3σ	odds
30d	7,258	81.75%±16.2	−0.7σ	odds
All	7,258	81.75%±16.2	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,263 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$783	7.3%	3	2.3	1.29×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 2,381	$588	7.2%	0	3.1	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,961	$481	7.1%	6	3.7	1.62×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,786	$441	7.2%	1	4.1	0.25×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,333	$327	7.1%	5	5.4	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 855	$209	7.1%	6	8.5	0.71×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 606	$147	7.0%	16	12.0	1.34×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 503	$122	7.0%	14	14.5	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 408	$98.84	7.0%	20	17.8	1.12×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$71.39	7.0%	28	24.7	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$56.31	7.0%	23	31.2	0.74×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 146	$35.40	7.0%	66	49.6	1.33×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	21.9%	$1.28	8.1%	1,263	1590.8	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	26.3%	$0.72	5.5%	1,659	1911.3	0.87×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	49.3%	$0.09	1.3%	4,153	3584.1	1.16×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/lord, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertsenseiKeS-_`$3.94$797202.2x4d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.94$783198.6x18h

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$3.94$494125.3x5d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$3.94$494125.3x6d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$3.94$491124.5x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$3.94$484122.9x1d

★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertshz$3.94$441111.9x10h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarekekitoelcrackpvp$3.94$0.090.02x35m

P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKscerato da Temu$3.94$0.090.02x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalKscerato da Temu$3.94$0.720.18x1h

P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKscerato da Temu$3.94$0.090.02x1h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalSÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$3.94$1.280.32x2h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$3.94$1.280.32x2h

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalSÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$3.94$1.280.32x2h

P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMonarchBeauty$3.94$0.090.02x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.94	87.50%	15
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.94	87.37%	15
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.94	87.42%	15
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.94	87.05%	15
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.94	87.45%	15
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.94	87.85%	15
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.94	87.33%	15
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.94	87.67%	15
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.94	87.67%	15
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.94	87.11%	15
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.94	87.38%	15
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.94	87.88%	15
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.94	87.80%	15
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.94	88.01%	15
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.94	87.34%	15
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.94	87.99%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.94	87.31%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%legendary 0.0%red 0.7%Mythical 48.2%Rare 49.3%best hit $797 (202.2x)