LOST FORTUNE

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.39%

EV $43.69 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.56%

47.9K openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.40%±1.1434.2K openings

30 days

86.56%±0.9747.9K openings

since tracking started

86.56%±0.9747.9K openings

84.5%86.5%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.59% – 87.53%, 47,937 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	34.2K	86.40%±1.14	−2.3σ	odds
30d	47.9K	86.56%±0.97	−2.3σ	odds
All	47.9K	86.56%±0.97	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$3,614	0.2%	3	1.4	2.07×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$2,204	0.4%	1	3.4	0.30×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,659	0.4%	3	4.8	0.62×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$1,206	0.6%	10	9.6	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$786	0.5%	9	14.5	0.62×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 3,333	$651	0.4%	20	14.5	1.38×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$594	0.7%	20	24.1	0.83×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$417	0.1%	1	4.8	0.21×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 769	$320	1.0%	29	62.7	0.46×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$218	0.2%	9	19.3	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$208	0.8%	85	82.0	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 526	$186	0.8%	79	91.7	0.86×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$176	0.8%	224	96.5	2.32×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$175	1.1%	42	130.2	0.32×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 93	$156	3.8%	605	516.2	1.17×
SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 77	$128	3.8%	612	627.1	0.98×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$127	1.5%	270	246.0	1.10×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 31	$113	8.3%	1,170	1538.9	0.76×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$99.49	8.2%	1,320	1746.3	0.76×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$85.83	8.2%	1,571	2021.3	0.78×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$73.95	3.1%	681	887.6	0.77×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 12	$61.09	11.8%	4,880	4076.3	1.20×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$53.59	4.3%	859	1683.6	0.51×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$52.28	4.4%	1,335	1780.1	0.75×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 82	$42.27	1.2%	423	588.5	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 99	$36.87	0.9%	354	487.2	0.73×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$35.05	5.6%	3,262	3352.7	0.97×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 55	$31.83	1.3%	583	878.0	0.66×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 51	$30.53	1.4%	686	945.5	0.73×
G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$29.75	5.1%	3,752	3579.4	1.05×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$28.51	1.1%	612	849.0	0.72×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 46	$28.43	1.4%	659	1042.0	0.63×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$25.44	0.8%	499	685.0	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$20.12	1.1%	820	1172.2	0.70×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$20.10	1.3%	914	1399.0	0.65×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$19.79	1.1%	843	1172.2	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$19.31	1.1%	847	1234.9	0.69×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$19.25	3.9%	4,286	4264.4	1.01×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$18.51	0.9%	762	1075.8	0.71×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$16.18	1.0%	937	1268.7	0.74×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$15.67	1.0%	978	1336.2	0.73×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$15.42	1.5%	1,385	2016.4	0.69×
Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · light blue	10.8%	$11.63	2.9%	5,156	5209.9	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/lost-fortune, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.00$3,58571.69x4d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedAgroHardrada$50.00$3,58571.69x5d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$50.00$2,24244.85x7d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldPutitaBarata$50.00$1,66133.22x3d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$50.00$1,66133.22x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlkOUKi-$50.00$1,34126.82x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlKouki-$50.00$1,34126.82x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$50.00$1,34126.82x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkM$50.00$35.050.70x2d

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pinkM$50.00$19.560.39x2d

Glock-18 | Snack Attackweapon · pinkM$50.00$21.790.44x2d

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · redM$50.00$57.211.14x2d

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · bluetwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$50.00$85.831.72x2d

G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluetwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$50.00$29.750.60x2d

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient$50.00$42.270.85x2d

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · bluetwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$50.00$85.831.72x2d

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red$50.00$31.830.64x2d

G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluetwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$50.00$29.750.60x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$50.00	87.39%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$50.00	87.53%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$50.00	88.04%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$50.00	87.83%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$50.00	87.76%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$50.00	87.45%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$50.00	87.98%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$50.00	87.42%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$50.00	87.51%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$50.00	87.93%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$50.00	87.67%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$50.00	87.68%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$50.00	87.87%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.5%covert 10.4%rare 0.0%legendary 0.1%pink 23.1%gray 1.3%gold 11.6%blue 15.2%Ancient 1.2%red 5.9%violet 8.8%light blue 10.8%best hit $3,585 (71.69x)