LUCKY SSSTRIKE

A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$80.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $70.00 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.99%

2,859 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.69%±10.47393 openings

7 days

86.78%±4.402,261 openings

30 days

86.99%±3.922,859 openings

since tracking started

86.99%±3.922,859 openings

76.5%87.8%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	393	87.69%±10.5	+0.0σ	odds
7d	2,261	86.78%±4.40	−0.3σ	odds
30d	2,859	86.99%±3.92	−0.2σ	odds
All	2,859	86.99%±3.92	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,859 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$8,792	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 33,333	$5,330	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 16,667	$2,803	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$2,003	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$1,238	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$994	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$927	0.7%	2	1.4	1.40×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$919	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$679	0.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$572	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$383	2.7%	16	14.0	1.14×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$283	4.2%	22	29.4	0.75×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 46	$234	7.2%	47	61.8	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$208	7.2%	75	69.5	1.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 29	$161	7.9%	108	98.1	1.10×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$151	7.9%	136	104.4	1.30×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 22	$124	7.9%	140	127.8	1.10×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$119	14.8%	192	249.3	0.77×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 25	$85.00	4.8%	73	112.9	0.65×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 25	$84.51	4.8%	70	114.1	0.61×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 66	$78.70	1.7%	33	43.2	0.76×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 47	$75.26	2.3%	42	60.6	0.69×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 47	$74.43	2.3%	52	61.5	0.85×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$70.17	1.2%	19	33.5	0.57×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$53.51	1.3%	41	49.2	0.83×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$49.30	1.4%	41	54.9	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 119	$48.24	0.6%	21	24.0	0.87×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$35.50	0.7%	27	37.2	0.73×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$35.36	0.5%	21	28.9	0.73×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$31.60	0.7%	26	43.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$30.98	0.7%	32	45.2	0.71×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$30.92	0.7%	25	45.2	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$29.71	0.7%	45	47.7	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$29.28	0.7%	35	48.6	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$27.50	0.7%	41	53.2	0.77×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$25.25	2.4%	194	188.4	1.03×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$22.80	0.6%	46	53.5	0.86×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$22.62	0.6%	37	54.0	0.68×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$22.18	0.6%	42	55.5	0.76×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$21.30	2.1%	202	201.8	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$20.40	2.1%	215	205.3	1.05×
Nova \| Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$18.00	1.9%	220	215.9	1.02×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$16.43	1.8%	212	222.7	0.95×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/lucky-ssstrike, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$80.00$92911.62x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertPro MMA Fighter$80.00$92911.61x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · redSober But Blur$80.00$55.880.70x25m

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covertSober But Blur$80.00$53.510.67x26m

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$80.00$1191.48x26m

Nova | Tempest (Factory New)weapon · blue$80.00$18.000.23x26m

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$80.00$2833.54x26m

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSober But Blur$80.00$20.400.26x33m

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSober But Blur$80.00$20.400.26x34m

★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$80.00$1511.89x34m

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$80.00$21.300.27x34m

UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$80.00$20.400.26x34m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:48 UTC	$80.00	87.50%	43
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$80.00	87.50%	43
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$80.00	87.68%	43
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$80.00	87.65%	43
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$80.00	87.32%	43
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$80.00	87.48%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$80.00	87.69%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$80.00	87.45%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$80.00	87.38%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$80.00	87.72%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$80.00	87.30%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$80.00	87.58%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$80.00	87.36%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$80.00	87.60%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$80.00	87.29%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$80.00	87.38%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$80.00	87.47%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$80.00	87.40%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 26.7%legendary 0.0%gold 11.6%pink 19.8%red 4.3%classified 9.0%restricted 12.2%violet 1.6%mil spec 7.2%blue 7.5%best hit $929 (11.62x)