M4

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.82

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.34 from 120 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.22%

11.6K openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.19%±12.39904 openings

7 days

86.43%±3.6310.1K openings

30 days

86.22%±3.3711.6K openings

since tracking started

86.22%±3.3711.6K openings

72.0%85.0%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	904	85.19%±12.4	−0.4σ	odds
7d	10.1K	86.43%±3.63	−0.6σ	odds
30d	11.6K	86.22%±3.37	−0.8σ	odds
All	11.6K	86.22%±3.37	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values120 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$806	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$239	0.4%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 20,000	$222	0.3%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$214	0.4%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$154	0.3%	3	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$147	0.4%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$144	0.3%	2	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$135	0.3%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$130	0.3%	3	1.1	2.86×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$127	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$103	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$100	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$75.58	0.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$64.58	0.3%	3	1.9	1.61×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$64.31	0.3%	4	1.9	2.14×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 5,556	$57.86	0.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$48.02	0.3%	5	2.5	2.04×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$43.99	0.3%	1	2.7	0.37×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,000	$39.89	0.3%	4	2.9	1.37×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,846	$39.83	0.3%	2	3.0	0.66×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$36.87	0.3%	7	3.3	2.14×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$36.64	0.3%	3	3.3	0.92×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$35.65	0.3%	4	3.3	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$30.50	0.3%	3	3.9	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$29.03	0.3%	4	4.1	0.98×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 11,111	$28.18	0.1%	1	1.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,091	$27.36	0.1%	1	1.3	0.78×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$23.67	0.3%	6	4.9	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$22.79	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$22.32	0.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,222	$22.08	0.3%	5	5.3	0.95×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,174	$21.85	0.3%	14	5.4	2.61×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$20.76	0.0%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 4,348	$16.81	0.1%	2	2.7	0.75×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$15.57	0.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$15.31	0.2%	3	3.9	0.78×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$15.28	0.2%	7	3.9	1.82×
M4A4 \| Falak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,704	$15.18	0.1%	2	3.2	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$14.98	0.3%	10	7.7	1.30×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,493	$14.88	0.3%	6	7.8	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 124	$13.55	3.3%	67	94.4	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 144	$13.19	2.7%	67	81.1	0.83×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 55	$12.66	6.9%	153	211.3	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 103	$12.38	3.6%	71	112.9	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 177	$10.60	1.8%	43	66.0	0.65×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 186	$9.69	1.6%	29	62.9	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 80	$8.77	3.3%	78	145.0	0.54×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 315	$8.58	0.8%	32	37.0	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 365	$8.46	0.7%	24	32.0	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 248	$7.85	0.9%	21	47.1	0.45×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$7.69	1.6%	53	79.1	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 254	$7.64	0.9%	33	46.0	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$7.50	2.0%	77	104.3	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$7.50	2.0%	47	104.3	0.45×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$6.91	1.9%	76	105.6	0.72×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$6.43	1.9%	84	113.1	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 215	$5.84	0.8%	39	54.4	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 64	$5.81	2.7%	127	181.5	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$5.77	2.7%	134	184.1	0.73×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 181	$5.77	1.0%	44	64.6	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$5.57	2.6%	79	179.8	0.44×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$5.27	1.6%	62	116.7	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$5.10	2.8%	145	214.3	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 91	$5.04	1.6%	68	127.6	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 98	$5.00	1.5%	72	119.6	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 219	$4.76	0.6%	33	53.2	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 79	$4.68	1.8%	68	147.9	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 94	$4.53	1.4%	70	123.9	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 78	$4.51	1.7%	84	149.1	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 77	$4.45	1.7%	86	151.0	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 71	$4.26	1.8%	116	164.7	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 64	$4.08	1.9%	105	182.1	0.58×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$3.94	1.6%	85	154.6	0.55×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$3.71	0.7%	47	77.4	0.61×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$3.63	1.7%	113	179.9	0.63×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 395	$3.59	0.3%	20	29.5	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$3.47	0.8%	59	86.7	0.68×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 143	$3.47	0.7%	54	81.8	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 126	$3.31	0.8%	59	92.6	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$3.20	1.0%	64	115.9	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 119	$2.74	0.7%	66	98.2	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 275	$2.57	0.3%	24	42.5	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 190	$2.49	0.4%	46	61.3	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 140	$2.23	0.5%	53	83.2	0.64×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 307	$2.07	0.2%	31	38.0	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 126	$1.94	0.5%	57	92.8	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 126	$1.94	0.5%	67	92.8	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 346	$1.94	0.2%	21	33.7	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 117	$1.84	0.5%	73	100.1	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 121	$1.80	0.4%	57	96.5	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 118	$1.77	0.4%	62	98.7	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 116	$1.75	0.5%	56	100.3	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$1.65	0.8%	100	199.6	0.50×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$1.54	0.5%	75	128.5	0.58×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$1.51	1.3%	188	331.5	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 79	$1.39	0.5%	86	147.8	0.58×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 103	$1.37	0.4%	63	113.3	0.56×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 102	$1.36	0.4%	77	114.5	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 176	$1.33	0.2%	40	66.4	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.31	0.5%	115	161.0	0.71×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$1.30	1.4%	411	413.7	0.99×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$1.15	0.4%	98	144.7	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 86	$1.12	0.4%	93	135.6	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 139	$1.01	0.2%	57	83.8	0.68×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 210	$1.01	0.1%	38	55.5	0.68×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 84	$0.82	0.3%	90	138.7	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.80	0.2%	60	116.2	0.52×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 80	$0.79	0.3%	93	146.2	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$0.79	0.2%	70	118.2	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear)weapon · light blue	1 in 30	$0.74	0.7%	249	389.2	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 87	$0.72	0.2%	94	134.6	0.70×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 69	$0.71	0.3%	95	169.6	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 22	$0.70	1.0%	554	529.9	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 38	$0.62	0.5%	199	310.0	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$0.54	0.3%	151	234.5	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$0.49	0.3%	169	268.6	0.63×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$0.45	0.2%	116	172.3	0.67×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$0.42	0.2%	141	189.8	0.74×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$0.39	0.2%	115	210.6	0.55×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 13	$0.17	0.4%	962	930.6	1.03×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/m4, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Mud-Specweapon · blueLight☣Zypki☣$3.82$1.000.26x2m

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Minimal Wear)weapon · light blue☣Zypki☣$3.82$0.740.19x3m

M4A4 | Choppa (Factory New)weapon · blue$3.82$1.300.34x3m

M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$3.82$1.890.49x3m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$3.82$2.020.53x3m

M4A4 | Etch Lordweapon · violetNonStop$3.82$0.470.12x3m

M4A4 | Sheet Lightningweapon · violetNonStop$3.82$0.870.23x4m

M4A4 | Etch Lordweapon · violetNonStop$3.82$0.470.12x4m

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkNonStop$3.82$5.281.38x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.82	87.50%	120
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.82	87.61%	120
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.82	87.09%	120
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.82	87.58%	120
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.82	87.80%	120
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.82	87.76%	120
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.82	87.14%	120
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.82	87.20%	120
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.82	87.49%	120
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.82	87.89%	120
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.82	87.91%	120
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.82	87.87%	120
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.82	87.54%	120
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.82	87.19%	120
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.82	87.49%	120
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.82	87.47%	120
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.82	87.61%	120

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%epic 0.0%classified 5.2%red 0.0%restricted 16.9%rare 1.3%mil spec 4.6%Ancient 0.0%#d32ce6 1.3%pink 4.9%industrial 0.0%violet 14.4%Mythical 2.9%uncommon 1.8%#8847ff 8.7%blue 9.8%Classified 3.1%Rare 4.9%#d32ee6 1.8%Legendary 1.3%#4b69ff 0.5%Uncommon 0.7%Mil Spec Grade 1.7%light blue 3.3%Restricted 2.7%blueLight 8.0%best hit —