MACHINE JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$373.52
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
93.04%
82 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
15 openings · below min
7 days
68 openings · below min
30 days
82 openings · below min
since tracking started
82 openings · below min
15.0%101.3%187.5%

Small sample. 82 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15101.25%±85.4—sample
7d6898.17%±38.2—sample
30d8293.04%±32.6—sample
All8293.04%±32.6—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,167 (5.83x)