MAFIA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.62 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.00%

4,275 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.07%±17.74310 openings

7 days

90.83%±5.313,534 openings

30 days

89.00%±4.844,275 openings

since tracking started

89.00%±4.844,275 openings

72.5%91.0%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	310	91.07%±17.7	+0.4σ	odds
7d	3,534	90.83%±5.31	+1.1σ	odds
30d	4,275	89.00%±4.84	+0.4σ	odds
All	4,275	89.00%±4.84	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$230	0.9%	2	0.4	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$137	2.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$130	1.5%	3	1.3	2.34×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$54.81	0.5%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$41.56	0.5%	3	1.3	2.34×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$20.70	0.5%	3	2.5	1.19×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$17.89	0.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$14.53	0.5%	8	3.6	2.23×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 990	$12.09	0.5%	2	4.3	0.46×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 123	$7.89	2.4%	29	34.8	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$7.50	5.0%	48	74.3	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$7.50	5.0%	57	74.3	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$6.99	5.7%	95	91.7	1.04×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$6.48	5.7%	105	98.9	1.06×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$5.71	1.9%	26	38.2	0.68×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$5.04	5.7%	155	127.2	1.22×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 76	$4.70	2.4%	44	56.4	0.78×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 15	$4.08	10.4%	157	285.3	0.55×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$3.73	11.3%	203	341.3	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 95	$2.74	1.1%	34	45.0	0.76×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$2.69	5.4%	245	225.5	1.09×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$2.67	5.4%	226	226.2	1.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 55	$2.22	1.5%	64	78.2	0.82×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$2.17	1.6%	54	80.7	0.67×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$2.03	1.6%	64	88.6	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$1.84	2.0%	80	119.6	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.65	1.3%	54	91.4	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$1.54	2.1%	141	153.4	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.18	1.5%	99	146.1	0.68×
Sticker \| Flexsticker · blue	1 in 14	$1.18	3.3%	355	313.5	1.13×
AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$0.94	2.9%	317	343.4	0.92×
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.92	2.8%	364	346.3	1.05×
Sticker \| Cutiesticker · violet	1 in 11	$0.74	2.5%	394	377.8	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 11	$0.63	2.3%	405	403.0	1.01×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/mafia, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · gold · Phase 4yda4a$3.00$24079.91x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · bluem0nesy$3.00$0.920.31x26m

Sticker | Cutiesticker · violet$3.00$0.720.24x28m

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$3.00$2.770.92x28m

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$3.00$1.660.55x28m

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · bluem0nesy$3.00$0.910.30x28m

Sticker | Flexsticker · blueÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$3.00$1.180.39x1h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$3.00$2.770.92x1h

Sticker | Flexsticker · blueÇORAPHIRSIZI | Bloodycase.com$3.00$1.190.40x1h

Sticker | Flexsticker · blueSÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$3.00$1.180.39x2h

Sticker | Flexsticker · blueSÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR$3.00$1.190.40x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.00	87.50%	34
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.00	88.13%	34
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.00	87.98%	34
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.00	87.84%	34
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.00	88.05%	34
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.00	87.83%	34
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.00	88.08%	34
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.00	87.95%	34
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.00	87.74%	34
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.00	88.14%	34
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.00	87.52%	34
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.00	88.43%	34
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.00	87.71%	34
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.00	87.99%	34
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.00	88.01%	34
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.00	87.78%	34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.00	88.04%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 0.1%red 0.0%classified 9.5%uncommon 3.0%pink 1.7%Mil Spec Grade 6.7%mil spec 8.0%violet 25.0%blue 24.4%Rare 2.1%restricted 2.1%gray 17.4%best hit $240 (79.91x)