MARKER

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.94

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.82 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.14%

71.5K openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.29%±3.998,199 openings

7 days

81.45%±1.5060.3K openings

30 days

81.14%±1.3771.5K openings

since tracking started

81.14%±1.3771.5K openings

76.5%82.3%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.38% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.76% – 82.51%, 71,527 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8,199	81.29%±3.99	−3.0σ	odds
7d	60.3K	81.45%±1.50	−7.7σ	odds
30d	71.5K	81.14%±1.37	−8.9σ	odds
All	71.5K	81.14%±1.37	−8.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$130	1.6%	2	7.2	0.28×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$43.77	1.0%	7	13.6	0.51×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$28.66	1.0%	10	20.0	0.50×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$19.39	1.0%	17	29.3	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$10.60	1.0%	36	53.0	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 855	$6.67	0.9%	60	83.7	0.72×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,408	$5.33	0.5%	18	50.8	0.35×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,205	$4.92	0.5%	24	59.4	0.40×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,125	$4.30	0.2%	4	22.9	0.17×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 465	$3.61	0.9%	120	153.9	0.78×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$2.57	15.7%	1,611	3590.0	0.45×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$2.27	2.5%	413	642.0	0.64×
Charm \| Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.05	7.6%	2,112	2174.3	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 176	$2.02	1.4%	194	406.5	0.48×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 239	$1.91	1.0%	158	299.9	0.53×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$1.51	1.9%	901	727.2	1.24×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.48	3.8%	1,237	1509.4	0.82×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 37	$1.46	4.8%	1,059	1947.4	0.54×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$1.33	12.3%	724	5453.0	0.13×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$1.28	12.8%	3,666	5887.4	0.62×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.77	4.4%	3,432	3352.4	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$0.66	1.8%	788	1645.4	0.48×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$0.65	0.7%	397	634.8	0.63×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$0.60	1.6%	798	1522.3	0.52×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 35	$0.56	2.0%	1,088	2070.5	0.53×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 114	$0.56	0.6%	343	629.1	0.55×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$0.53	1.6%	917	1811.5	0.51×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 87	$0.51	0.7%	444	826.6	0.54×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 74	$0.48	0.8%	542	969.1	0.56×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 65	$0.44	0.8%	639	1095.0	0.58×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 70	$0.44	0.8%	558	1016.3	0.55×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.39	0.8%	570	1203.1	0.47×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 57	$0.38	0.8%	638	1247.5	0.51×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 16	$0.38	2.9%	4,727	4468.9	1.06×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.35	0.9%	670	1508.0	0.44×
Sticker \| Eyes of Farlowsticker · blue	1 in 13	$0.23	2.1%	5,878	5462.3	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.17	1.8%	6,436	6164.4	1.04×
MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.14	1.6%	7,165	6662.5	1.08×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.11	1.1%	2,979	6150.1	0.48×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/marker, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGrandRegantDachi$0.94$135144.1x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Dezastreweapon · blueHungng$0.94$0.150.16x2m

SG 553 | Aerialweapon · blueGlaBreaker$0.94$0.450.48x2m

UMP-45 | Continuumweapon · violetGlaBreaker$0.94$0.600.64x2m

Charm | Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ffGlaBreaker$0.94$2.052.18x2m

MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffGlaBreaker$0.94$0.140.15x2m

MP5-SD | Agentweapon · restrictedGlaBreaker$0.94$0.670.71x2m

CZ75-Auto | Pole Positionweapon · violetGlaBreaker$0.94$1.341.43x2m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueMILTIX$0.94$0.170.18x3m

MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffMILTIX$0.94$0.140.15x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.94	87.50%	39
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.94	87.28%	39
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.94	87.26%	39
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.94	87.63%	39
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.94	87.42%	39
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.94	87.06%	39
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.94	87.37%	39
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.94	87.44%	39
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.94	86.84%	39
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.94	87.75%	39
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.94	87.20%	39
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.94	87.18%	39
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.94	87.07%	39
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.94	87.92%	39
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.94	88.09%	39
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.94	87.40%	39
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.94	87.64%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%Legendary 0.2%restricted 9.9%violet 27.8%#8847ff 5.8%milspec 2.6%common 2.9%blue 33.3%Mil Spec 1.7%gray 6.2%#4b69ff 9.3%best hit $135 (144.1x)