MASK
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.63 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.18%
17.6K openings, odds method
Variance
14.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 46
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.87% – 86.48%, 17,637 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold | 1 in 167 | $84.74 | 19.4% | 89 | 106.4 | 0.84× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 156 | $80.08 | 19.5% | 96 | 113.5 | 0.85× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 109 | $55.78 | 19.5% | 151 | 163.1 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 71 | $36.61 | 19.5% | 229 | 248.2 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 11 | $5.43 | 19.4% | 1,987 | 1661.0 | 1.20× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue | 87.1% | $0.08 | 2.7% | 15,175 | 15434.9 | 0.98× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/mask, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 86.94% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.98% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.70% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.43% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.92% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.59% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 88.28% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 86.90% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.67% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.36% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.90% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.24% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.6%covert 3.0%Legendary 9.4%light blue 87.1%best hit —