NEW KNIVES

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$160.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $140.01 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.38%

509 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

36 openings · below min

7 days

79.01%±6.94390 openings

30 days

81.38%±6.08509 openings

since tracking started

81.38%±6.08509 openings

56.5%79.8%103.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.30% – 87.46%, 509 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36	79.76%±22.4	—	odds
7d	390	79.01%±6.94	−2.4σ	odds
30d	509	81.38%±6.08	−2.0σ	odds
All	509	81.38%±6.08	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 719	$1,054	1.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 592	$861	1.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 478	$697	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 183	$596	2.3%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 158	$513	2.3%	3	3.2	0.93×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 146	$476	2.3%	3	3.5	0.86×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 145	$470	2.3%	1	3.5	0.28×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 48	$333	5.0%	16	10.7	1.50×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 47	$329	5.0%	9	10.8	0.83×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 44	$306	5.0%	14	11.6	1.21×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 35	$247	5.0%	15	14.4	1.04×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 35	$245	5.0%	14	14.5	0.97×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$192	4.8%	13	17.7	0.74×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$178	4.8%	10	19.1	0.52×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 25	$168	4.8%	18	20.2	0.89×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$168	4.8%	19	20.2	0.94×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 19	$150	5.6%	32	26.5	1.21×
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 19	$148	5.5%	16	26.6	0.60×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 19	$148	5.5%	28	26.7	1.05×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 17	$116	4.9%	37	30.1	1.23×
★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 15	$92.29	4.4%	35	33.7	1.04×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$83.10	4.1%	32	35.6	0.90×
★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 13	$69.67	3.8%	29	38.8	0.75×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 12	$59.13	3.5%	52	42.1	1.23×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 11	$49.03	3.2%	60	46.3	1.30×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 11	$46.01	3.1%	53	47.8	1.11×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/new-knives, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertEscopetillasJhonson$160$5303.32x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertNOWAY$160$5113.20x5d

★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$160$5113.20x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert_JP1._$160$83.100.52x3h

★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertZevkLast`iN$160$1490.93x5h

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortalnot awp abuser$160$58.830.37x6h

★ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · goldnot awp abuser$160$89.390.56x6h

★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · goldnot awp abuser$160$1430.89x6h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · goldnot awp abuser$160$46.100.29x6h

★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertTiti Aranda$160$1791.12x8h

★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertTiti Aranda$160$80.480.50x8h

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · goldTiti Aranda$160$49.850.31x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:48 UTC	$160	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$160	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$160	87.44%	26
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$160	87.42%	26
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$160	87.59%	26
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$160	87.62%	26
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$160	87.60%	26
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$160	87.40%	26
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$160	87.39%	26
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$160	87.34%	26
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$160	87.57%	26
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$160	87.94%	26
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$160	87.61%	26
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$160	87.62%	26
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$160	87.55%	26
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$160	87.40%	26
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$160	87.44%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$160	87.66%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.7%epic 6.3%legendary 0.5%gold 48.3%Immortal 14.2%best hit $530 (3.32x)