NEWSLETTER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.00

Advertised RTP

—

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$217	1.5%	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$110	1.5%	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$53.51	0.7%	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 20,000	$28.74	1.0%	—
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$10.87	0.7%	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$7.44	0.5%	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$6.32	0.9%	—
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,000	$2.10	0.7%	—
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 250	$1.81	4.9%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$1.00	3.4%	—
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$0.59	4.0%	—
Sticker \| Frogglessticker · violet	1 in 100	$0.56	3.8%	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.45	6.1%	—
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.44	5.9%	—
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 22	$0.33	10.0%	—
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 22	$0.27	8.2%	—
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 22	$0.18	5.5%	—
MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	10.0%	$0.18	12.1%	—
Sticker \| Boom Trailsticker · violet	1 in 22	$0.17	5.2%	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	10.0%	$0.15	10.1%	—
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	13.0%	$0.09	7.9%	—
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	14.0%	$0.02	1.9%	—
Nova \| Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	14.0%	$0.02	1.9%	—
MP9 \| Dizzy (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	14.0%	$0.02	1.9%	—

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/newsletter, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9Fstekin$0$0.020.00x3d

MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueDerek$0$0.170.00x3d

XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueGamba Rebozada$0$0.120.00x3d

MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9Fenap$0$0.020.00x3d

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueHashtag#DuMau$0$0.150.00x3d

Nova | Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9KZNtheking$0$0.020.00x3d

R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9Gato$0$0.020.00x3d

MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9愛$0$0.020.00x3d

R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9LauBok78$0$0.020.00x3d

Nova | Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9Ginola$0$0.020.00x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:48 UTC	$0	—	24
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0	—	24
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0	—	24
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0	—	24
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0	—	24
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0	—	24
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0	—	24
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0	—	24
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0	—	24
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0	—	24
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0	—	24
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0	—	24
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0	—	24
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0	—	24
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0	—	24
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$0	—	24
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0	—	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0	—	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%pink 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%violet 9.9%Mythical 0.5%uncommon 1.0%gray 4.5%blue 42.0%#5e98d9 14.0%#b0c3d9 28.0%