NO POISON

A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$35.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $30.62 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.31%

5,207 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.56%±12.54491 openings

7 days

89.75%±4.374,017 openings

30 days

90.31%±3.845,207 openings

since tracking started

90.31%±3.845,207 openings

80.5%93.8%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	491	93.56%±12.5	+0.9σ	odds
7d	4,017	89.75%±4.37	+1.0σ	odds
30d	5,207	90.31%±3.84	+1.4σ	odds
All	5,207	90.31%±3.84	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,207 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 33,333	$2,821	0.3%	2	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14,286	$2,003	0.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,587	0.5%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,109	0.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$861	0.8%	2	1.6	1.28×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$632	1.0%	3	2.6	1.15×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$572	0.9%	5	2.6	1.92×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,000	$369	0.6%	5	2.6	1.92×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · gold · Phase 2	1 in 1,250	$260	0.7%	5	4.2	1.20×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 714	$146	0.7%	4	7.3	0.55×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 714	$145	0.7%	5	7.3	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$123	14.6%	150	189.0	0.79×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 46	$91.83	6.5%	80	112.5	0.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$82.85	1.1%	27	21.9	1.23×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$81.04	1.9%	22	38.0	0.58×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$72.60	2.1%	44	46.9	0.94×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$71.39	2.2%	29	48.9	0.59×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$70.80	1.7%	35	38.5	0.91×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 200	$67.00	1.1%	23	26.0	0.88×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 167	$65.37	1.3%	28	31.2	0.90×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$58.32	1.6%	40	44.3	0.90×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$54.51	1.7%	51	50.5	1.01×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$54.24	2.2%	52	66.1	0.79×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$54.15	1.8%	45	51.5	0.87×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$53.97	1.6%	44	45.8	0.96×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$53.21	2.3%	76	68.2	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$53.21	0.8%	15	24.5	0.61×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$50.22	2.3%	63	72.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$48.53	2.3%	59	77.1	0.77×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$46.68	2.1%	46	72.9	0.63×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 78	$44.98	1.9%	36	66.6	0.54×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$42.84	2.3%	66	86.4	0.76×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$39.59	2.1%	86	86.4	0.99×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 51	$39.44	2.5%	73	102.1	0.72×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 57	$38.61	2.2%	61	90.6	0.67×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 54	$37.58	2.3%	61	95.8	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$36.62	1.3%	32	57.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$35.79	1.3%	36	55.7	0.65×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$30.98	0.7%	23	36.4	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$27.36	1.4%	47	79.1	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 189	$25.54	0.4%	11	27.6	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$22.79	1.5%	87	102.1	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$22.32	1.5%	67	105.2	0.64×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$21.41	1.2%	86	91.6	0.94×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$20.29	1.2%	81	91.1	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$19.78	1.3%	91	102.6	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$19.71	1.3%	75	102.6	0.73×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$18.51	1.2%	74	103.6	0.71×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$17.55	0.9%	67	81.7	0.82×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$16.90	1.2%	94	117.2	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 104	$16.70	0.5%	35	50.0	0.70×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 130	$15.60	0.4%	32	40.1	0.80×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$12.97	1.0%	98	124.4	0.79×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$10.65	1.1%	122	164.0	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$8.68	0.7%	92	125.0	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$8.40	0.7%	94	131.2	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$8.29	0.7%	103	133.3	0.77×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$8.20	0.5%	68	97.9	0.69×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$6.93	0.5%	72	123.9	0.58×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 30	$6.93	0.8%	106	175.5	0.60×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$6.76	0.5%	93	128.1	0.73×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$6.70	0.8%	143	183.8	0.78×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$6.67	0.5%	95	130.7	0.73×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$6.67	0.8%	134	185.4	0.72×
UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	11.0%	$5.93	2.1%	579	574.9	1.01×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/no-poison, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyTweeyou$35.00$2,78979.69x1d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$35.00$86824.81x4d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyp3x$35.00$86824.79x17h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$35.00$65218.63x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldNightwish$35.00$64318.38x8d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$35.00$63218.06x20h

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldnaspoo$35.00$58616.74x7d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$35.00$58116.61x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Abyssal Apparitionweapon · pinkMontana$35.00$7.730.22x1h

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · redMontana$35.00$57.521.64x1h

USP-S | Printstreamweapon · redゼロツー$35.00$44.801.28x2h

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkゼロツー$35.00$21.060.60x2h

USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · redゼロツー$35.00$66.291.89x2h

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$35.00$10.160.29x2h

UMP-45 | Houndstooth (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$35.00$5.930.17x2h

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$35.00$6.580.19x2h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$35.00$33.700.96x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$35.00	87.50%	65
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$35.00	87.64%	65
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$35.00	87.72%	65
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$35.00	87.54%	65
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$35.00	87.69%	65
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$35.00	87.30%	65
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$35.00	87.73%	65
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$35.00	87.46%	65
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$35.00	87.44%	65
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$35.00	87.38%	65
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$35.00	87.60%	65
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$35.00	87.45%	65
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$35.00	87.42%	65
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$35.00	87.66%	65
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$35.00	87.32%	65
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$35.00	87.50%	65
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$35.00	87.66%	65

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 21.4%gold 0.1%red 4.7%Ancient 5.7%pink 37.7%classified 17.6%#d32ce6 1.0%Legendary 0.8%#87c7ff 11.0%best hit $2,789 (79.69x)