NOPE ROPE
A case on Key-Drop (VENOM VAULT), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.80
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.70 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.86%
21K openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
60.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
39.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.29% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.24% – 84.47%, 20,999 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 10,000 | $155 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $54.24 | 3.1% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare | 1 in 2,000 | $31.79 | 2.3% | 1 | 10.5 | 0.10× |
| M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 250 | $8.40 | 4.8% | 61 | 84.1 | 0.73× |
| AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 200 | $4.09 | 2.9% | 95 | 105.1 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet | 59.3% | $0.85 | 71.9% | 10,576 | 12459.1 | 0.85× |
| SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray | 10.4% | $0.63 | 9.4% | 3,207 | 2195.3 | 1.46× |
| MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 29.3% | $0.08 | 3.3% | 7,078 | 6163.3 | 1.15× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/nope-rope, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violetAHMET OFF A BAS GARDAŞ$0.80$0.851.06x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violetAHMET OFF A BAS GARDAŞ$0.80$0.851.06x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violetAHMET OFF A BAS GARDAŞ$0.80$0.851.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.80 | 87.50% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.80 | 86.80% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.80 | 87.74% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.80 | 87.95% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.80 | 87.30% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 88.10% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.80 | 87.52% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.80 | 87.13% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.80 | 87.06% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.80 | 86.71% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.80 | 87.87% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.80 | 88.50% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.80 | 86.91% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.80 | 86.71% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.80 | 86.85% | 8 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.80 | 86.77% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.80 | 86.67% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%rare 0.1%classified 0.4%pink 0.5%violet 59.3%gray 10.4%light blue 29.3%best hit $161 (201.0x)