PERFECT
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$3.25
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.84 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.15%
7,345 openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.46% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.47% – 83.82%, 7,345 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,351 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 10,000 | $550 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 313 | $124 | 13.9% | 17 | 23.5 | 0.72× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 156 | $64.31 | 14.5% | 58 | 47.0 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 128 | $50.22 | 13.8% | 51 | 57.3 | 0.89× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 97 | $37.64 | 13.6% | 59 | 75.7 | 0.78× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 59 | $23.31 | 13.9% | 92 | 124.2 | 0.74× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 43 | $16.85 | 13.8% | 119 | 171.3 | 0.69× |
| MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 37 | $14.59 | 14.0% | 129 | 199.9 | 0.65× |
| M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 90.5% | $0.02 | 0.6% | 6,825 | 6651.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/perfect, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.25 | 87.50% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.25 | 88.09% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.25 | 88.07% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.25 | 87.05% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.25 | 87.44% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.25 | 87.53% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.25 | 87.28% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.25 | 87.57% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.25 | 87.42% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.25 | 87.17% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.25 | 87.58% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.25 | 87.19% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.25 | 87.60% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.25 | 87.41% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.25 | 87.60% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.25 | 87.28% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.25 | 87.20% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 1.7%Ancient 1.0%classified 1.7%uncommon 2.3%Legendary 2.7%Uncommon 90.5%best hit $551 (169.6x)