PHASED
A case on Key-Drop (ANIME CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$13.29
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $11.63 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.60%
2,929 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,929 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/phased, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $13.29 | 87.57% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $13.29 | 87.45% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $13.29 | 87.73% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $13.29 | 87.38% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.29 | 87.48% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $13.29 | 87.34% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $13.29 | 87.63% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $13.29 | 87.62% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $13.29 | 87.43% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $13.29 | 87.56% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $13.29 | 87.71% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $13.29 | 87.39% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $13.29 | 87.72% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $13.29 | 87.61% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.29 | 87.50% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%red 1.8%rare 0.2%pink 33.1%Ancient 2.0%classified 32.3%#eb4b4b 3.4%blue 18.4%Legendary 8.5%best hit —