POKER

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$40.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $35.00 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.13%

3,428 openings, odds method

Variance

11.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

61.53%±54.49152 openings

7 days

84.63%±14.543,017 openings

30 days

84.13%±13.383,428 openings

since tracking started

84.13%±13.383,428 openings

6.5%61.5%116.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	152	61.53%±54.5	−0.9σ	odds
7d	3,017	84.63%±14.5	−0.4σ	odds
30d	3,428	84.13%±13.4	−0.5σ	odds
All	3,428	84.13%±13.4	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,428 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$2,559	1.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 588	$1,707	8.3%	14	5.8	2.40×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,685	1.0%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$1,549	6.6%	11	5.1	2.14×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 323	$858	7.6%	14	10.6	1.32×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$609	8.2%	16	16.1	0.99×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 250	$602	6.9%	12	13.7	0.88×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 110	$287	7.5%	24	31.2	0.77×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$280	7.5%	15	32.2	0.47×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 93	$246	7.5%	24	36.7	0.65×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 83	$218	7.5%	35	41.1	0.85×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$197	1.4%	7	8.2	0.85×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$170	1.6%	6	11.3	0.53×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$127	7.5%	37	70.6	0.52×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$122	2.2%	15	21.6	0.69×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$114	2.3%	8	24.7	0.32×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$92.17	7.5%	55	97.4	0.56×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 23	$59.43	7.5%	79	151.5	0.52×
Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	83.1%	$0.02	0.0%	3,048	2848.7	1.07×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/poker, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$40.00$1,66441.61x7d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$40.00$1,65941.48x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeralddiegoenol$40.00$1,65941.48x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$40.00$1,65941.48x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · grayTiti Aranda$40.00$0.020.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$40.00	87.50%	19
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$40.00	87.08%	19
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$40.00	87.45%	19
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$40.00	87.71%	19
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$40.00	87.84%	19
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$40.00	87.28%	19
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$40.00	87.39%	19
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$40.00	87.78%	19
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$40.00	88.10%	19
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$40.00	87.71%	19
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$40.00	87.60%	19
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$40.00	87.32%	19
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$40.00	87.64%	19
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$40.00	87.89%	19
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$40.00	87.62%	19
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$40.00	87.81%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.00	87.30%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.9%covert 11.5%restricted 0.0%epic 0.4%rare 1.2%classified 2.8%gray 83.1%best hit $1,664 (41.61x)