POLYCHROME
A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $8.75 from 60 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.38%
21.4K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/polychrome, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $10.00 | 87.50% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.58% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $10.00 | 87.89% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.00 | 87.81% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $10.00 | 87.98% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.00 | 87.81% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $10.00 | 87.77% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $10.00 | 87.68% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.75% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $10.00 | 87.93% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $10.00 | 87.90% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $10.00 | 87.78% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $10.00 | 87.66% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $10.00 | 87.91% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $10.00 | 88.04% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.52% | 60 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.00 | 87.84% | 60 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%epic 0.0%red 0.4%Ancient 0.0%classified 18.8%Classified 0.6%rare 0.5%Legendary 14.0%pink 42.0%violet 17.4%uncommon 6.0%best hit $772 (77.16x)