PREMIUM KNIVES

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$375.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $328.14 from 79 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.49%

902 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.46%±13.43158 openings

7 days

82.17%±6.14753 openings

30 days

83.49%±5.60902 openings

since tracking started

83.49%±5.60902 openings

68.5%82.5%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	158	82.46%±13.4	−0.7σ	odds
7d	753	82.17%±6.14	−1.7σ	odds
30d	902	83.49%±5.60	−1.4σ	odds
All	902	83.49%±5.60	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values79 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 902 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$3,100	0.5%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,429	$2,256	0.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$2,232	0.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,697	0.5%	1	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$1,606	0.5%	1	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 833	$1,448	0.5%	1	1.1	0.92×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,442	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 147	$1,349	2.8%	5	6.1	0.82×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 145	$1,328	2.8%	2	6.2	0.32×
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 143	$1,319	2.8%	6	6.3	0.95×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 127	$1,169	2.8%	7	7.1	0.98×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 120	$1,109	2.8%	4	7.5	0.53×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 114	$1,040	2.8%	2	7.9	0.25×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 667	$1,010	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 82	$934	3.5%	9	11.0	0.82×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 81	$915	3.5%	6	11.2	0.54×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 76	$861	3.5%	7	11.9	0.59×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 71	$806	3.5%	4	12.7	0.31×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 294	$748	0.8%	1	3.1	0.33×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$690	0.8%	2	3.6	0.55×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 227	$657	0.9%	0	4.0	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 55	$626	3.5%	26	16.4	1.58×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 53	$607	3.5%	22	17.0	1.30×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 435	$588	0.4%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 49	$550	3.5%	16	18.6	0.86×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 105	$550	1.6%	8	8.6	0.93×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 102	$542	1.6%	3	8.8	0.34×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 45	$515	3.5%	25	19.8	1.26×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 45	$513	3.5%	22	19.9	1.10×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 80	$481	1.8%	12	11.3	1.06×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 76	$465	1.9%	9	11.9	0.76×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 39	$441	3.5%	29	23.3	1.25×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 37	$418	3.5%	21	24.5	0.86×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 179	$414	0.7%	7	5.1	1.39×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 185	$384	0.6%	2	4.9	0.41×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 33	$379	3.5%	17	27.1	0.63×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 53	$360	2.1%	22	16.9	1.30×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 57	$352	1.9%	15	15.8	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 217	$336	0.5%	2	4.1	0.48×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 192	$333	0.5%	3	4.7	0.64×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 208	$325	0.5%	2	4.3	0.46×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 238	$313	0.4%	5	3.8	1.32×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 233	$307	0.4%	3	3.9	0.77×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 182	$299	0.5%	2	5.0	0.40×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 196	$277	0.4%	2	4.6	0.43×
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 48	$268	1.7%	21	18.7	1.12×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 133	$264	0.6%	5	6.8	0.74×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 133	$263	0.6%	4	6.8	0.59×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 48	$263	1.7%	23	18.9	1.22×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 47	$258	1.7%	14	19.0	0.74×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 46	$246	1.6%	22	19.6	1.12×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 93	$214	0.7%	6	9.7	0.62×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 40	$198	1.5%	24	22.3	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 70	$180	0.8%	4	12.8	0.31×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 35	$156	1.4%	25	25.8	0.97×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 169	$149	0.3%	4	5.3	0.75×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 116	$118	0.3%	3	7.8	0.39×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 108	$112	0.3%	7	8.4	0.83×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 100	$107	0.3%	4	9.0	0.44×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$89.30	1.1%	40	36.0	1.11×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 111	$75.30	0.2%	2	8.1	0.25×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 99	$72.71	0.2%	10	9.1	1.10×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 81	$64.31	0.2%	10	11.2	0.89×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 79	$63.07	0.2%	13	11.5	1.13×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 76	$61.97	0.2%	4	11.8	0.34×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$61.09	0.2%	6	10.8	0.55×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 78	$58.83	0.2%	6	11.5	0.52×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 75	$58.72	0.2%	10	12.0	0.83×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 78	$58.42	0.2%	8	11.6	0.69×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 71	$56.87	0.2%	5	12.6	0.40×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 73	$56.47	0.2%	4	12.4	0.32×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 70	$56.22	0.2%	10	12.9	0.78×
★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 18	$53.21	0.9%	58	49.2	1.18×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 92	$50.37	0.2%	4	9.8	0.41×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 91	$50.28	0.2%	4	9.9	0.40×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 86	$48.65	0.2%	9	10.5	0.86×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 85	$48.15	0.2%	7	10.6	0.66×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 82	$47.03	0.2%	13	11.0	1.18×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 17	$46.86	0.8%	51	51.8	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/premium-knives, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$375$3,0778.21x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$375$2,3646.30x5d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$375$2,2395.97x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · coverttwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$375$1,6744.46x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1twitch.tv/pr1mefpss$375$1,6574.42x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$375$1,4623.90x1d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Rubyƈҽʂι Ⴆαɳȥαι$375$1,3893.70x4d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · RubyVYR ✪TG-cvh$375$1,3493.60x14h

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$375$1,3493.60x20h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronicknife · sunnyPolesz$375$58.630.16x1h

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$375$4761.27x1h

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · ImmortalPolesz$375$59.130.16x1h

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Sxphvex$375$2460.66x1h

★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertゼロツー$375$2680.71x2h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$375$5161.38x2h

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold$375$72.600.19x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$375$48.140.13x2h

★ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold$375$52.020.14x2h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$375$6271.67x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$375	87.50%	79
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$375	87.50%	79
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$375	87.71%	79
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$375	87.53%	79
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$375	87.66%	79
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$375	87.74%	79
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$375	87.78%	79
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$375	87.76%	79
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$375	87.41%	79
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$375	87.49%	79
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$375	87.71%	79
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$375	87.53%	79
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$375	87.39%	79
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$375	87.68%	79
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$375	87.31%	79
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$375	87.59%	79
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$375	87.36%	79

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 71.4%gold 23.9%epic 0.9%rare 0.4%legendary 2.1%Immortal 1.3%best hit $3,077 (8.21x)