PUMPKIN SPICE
A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.87 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.96%
144K openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.30% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.64% – 86.28%, 144,268 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 155K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/pumpkin-spice-2, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.00 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.00 | 88.30% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.00 | 88.51% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.00 | 89.29% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%restricted 4.5%pink 4.0%classified 0.1%rare 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%blueLight 0.4%light blue 0.4%violet 38.0%blue 14.0%gray 30.1%#4b69ff 8.5%best hit $432 (432.4x)