RADIANT
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
87.49%
EV $21.87 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.02%
10.3K openings, odds method
Variance
8.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 10,000 | $1,930 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 128 | $688 | 24.5% | 81 | 80.6 | 1.01× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $173 | 24.3% | 305 | 317.0 | 0.96× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 19 | $101 | 24.4% | 552 | 545.3 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10 | $54.81 | 24.4% | 1,035 | 1004.8 | 1.03× |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 81.1% | $0.39 | 1.4% | 8,353 | 8378.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/radiant, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 87.49% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 87.13% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 87.02% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 87.32% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 87.24% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.37% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 87.70% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 87.29% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 87.21% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 87.72% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $25.00 | 87.14% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 88.00% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.45% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%epic 0.8%covert 18.1%violet 81.1%best hit $1,930 (77.19x)