RADIANT JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$625.33

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

74.02%

448 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

37 openings · below min

7 days

433 openings · below min

30 days

448 openings · below min

since tracking started

448 openings · below min

24.5%62.7%101.0%

Small sample. 448 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	37	62.94%±37.5	—	sample
7d	433	72.75%±10.9	—	sample
30d	448	74.02%±10.8	—	sample
All	448	74.02%±10.8	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldD. xGuGu$623$2,2573.62x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$617$2,2343.62x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$613$2,2053.59x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$610$2,1913.59x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetElPaPiDeTuMaMi$575$0.440.00x1h

★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$585$1680.29x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold$585$2,0653.53x1h

★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$585$1680.29x1h

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violetElPaPiDeTuMaMi$585$0.440.00x1h

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet(kick)use code MATANBRITO$575$0.440.00x10h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic(kick)use code MATANBRITO$575$6801.18x10h

AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert(kick)use code MATANBRITO$575$54.580.09x10h

★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$561$1730.31x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,257 (3.62x)