RAIN

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$69.42

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $60.74 from 60 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.11%

11.5K openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.66%±7.301,414 openings

7 days

86.98%±2.699,441 openings

30 days

86.11%±2.4311.5K openings

since tracking started

86.11%±2.4311.5K openings

82.5%90.5%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,414	90.66%±7.30	+0.8σ	odds
7d	9,441	86.98%±2.69	−0.4σ	odds
30d	11.5K	86.11%±2.43	−1.1σ	odds
All	11.5K	86.11%±2.43	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$3,063	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl	1 in 1,111	$1,366	2.0%	12	10.3	1.16×
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,115	0.9%	3	5.7	0.52×
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$939	1.1%	4	8.0	0.50×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 588	$745	2.1%	17	19.5	0.87×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 500	$626	2.1%	14	23.0	0.61×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$385	2.1%	38	37.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 30	$250	13.8%	78	383.9	0.20×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$209	4.3%	175	142.5	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$207	4.3%	202	144.8	1.39×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 179	$172	1.6%	116	64.4	1.80×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$164	4.2%	163	179.3	0.91×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$156	4.2%	222	189.7	1.17×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 244	$148	1.0%	34	47.1	0.72×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$144	1.0%	33	50.6	0.65×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 208	$137	1.1%	57	55.2	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 161	$136	1.4%	59	71.3	0.83×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$135	1.0%	34	51.7	0.66×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 192	$131	1.1%	52	59.8	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 152	$131	1.4%	63	75.9	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$130	1.4%	57	77.0	0.74×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$129	1.0%	40	56.3	0.71×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$125	1.1%	43	60.9	0.71×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$122	2.0%	82	117.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$120	1.1%	38	64.4	0.59×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$114	2.2%	100	134.5	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$75.12	7.9%	681	735.7	0.93×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$70.80	9.6%	764	942.6	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$70.60	8.4%	428	833.4	0.51×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 143	$66.50	0.8%	40	80.5	0.50×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$64.85	0.5%	48	58.6	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$64.31	0.6%	81	59.8	1.36×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$59.97	0.4%	33	42.5	0.78×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$56.68	0.4%	47	47.1	1.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$55.21	0.4%	39	49.4	0.79×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$54.24	0.7%	70	88.5	0.79×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$53.21	0.7%	76	92.0	0.83×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$53.04	0.4%	39	52.9	0.74×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$52.52	0.4%	43	52.9	0.81×
★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 45	$51.91	1.9%	265	254.0	1.04×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 108	$42.81	0.7%	76	106.9	0.71×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$41.80	0.7%	56	111.5	0.50×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 39	$39.89	1.7%	293	296.6	0.99×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 270	$30.98	0.2%	39	42.5	0.92×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$23.98	0.1%	11	14.9	0.74×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$17.55	0.3%	78	106.9	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 217	$13.39	0.1%	35	52.9	0.66×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$12.97	0.3%	120	172.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$10.77	0.2%	117	147.1	0.80×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$10.65	0.4%	174	236.8	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 92	$7.85	0.1%	97	125.3	0.77×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$6.76	0.3%	206	308.1	0.67×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$5.81	0.3%	282	393.1	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$5.27	0.2%	171	235.6	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 45	$5.04	0.2%	165	252.9	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 40	$4.68	0.2%	204	285.1	0.72×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$3.28	0.2%	266	352.9	0.75×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$2.66	0.2%	336	494.3	0.68×
Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$2.36	0.2%	405	598.9	0.68×
Sticker \| Lorenasticker · pink	14.2%	$2.25	0.5%	1,646	1638.0	1.00×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/rain, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$69.42$1,45220.92x7d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black PearlNatsuNekoDrag$69.42$1,43320.64x8d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearldonkgordo$69.42$1,42420.52x6d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$69.42$1,42420.52x6d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$69.42$1,42220.48x5d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearlxitax$69.42$1,39020.02x3d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl$69.42$1,39020.02x4d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearlxitax$69.42$1,33219.19x18h

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · gold · Black Pearl[420]_sweetweed$69.42$1,33219.19x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCODE TOROCHO$69.42$44.250.64x2m

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$69.42$2163.11x2m

M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$69.42$65.380.94x2m

Sticker | Lorenasticker · pinkCODE TOROCHO$69.42$2.360.03x2m

Sticker | Lorenasticker · pinkmɅck$69.42$2.250.03x10m

M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$69.42$70.741.02x11m

Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$69.42$2.300.03x11m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$69.42$5.770.08x11m

Sticker | Lorenasticker · pinkmɅck$69.42$2.360.03x11m

AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · redDeath13$69.42$2503.60x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$69.42	87.50%	60
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$69.42	87.65%	60
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$69.42	87.53%	60
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$69.42	87.51%	60
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$69.42	87.50%	60
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$69.42	87.54%	60
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$69.42	87.55%	60
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$69.42	87.66%	60
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$69.42	87.73%	60
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$69.42	87.23%	60
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$69.42	87.24%	60
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$69.42	87.48%	60
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$69.42	87.55%	60
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$69.42	87.67%	60
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$69.42	87.31%	60
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$69.42	87.15%	60
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$69.42	87.94%	60

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%gold 5.3%covert 37.5%red 8.2%classified 1.6%pink 29.0%restricted 0.1%Classified 3.3%Legendary 2.5%violet 12.6%best hit $1,452 (20.92x)