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RAIN JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$422.86
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
93.17%
897 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
201 openings · below min
7 days
787 openings · below min
30 days
897 openings · below min
since tracking started
897 openings · below min
66.0%87.5%109.0%

Small sample. 897 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h20187.35%±20.9—sample
7d78792.06%±11.7—sample
30d89793.17%±10.9—sample
All89793.17%±10.9—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlNatsuNekoDrag$423$3,2467.68x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlNatsuNekoDrag$423$3,2467.68x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$423$3,2467.68x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$423$3,2467.68x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$421$3,2337.67x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$421$3,2337.67x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlMATAMOROS$417$3,1847.64x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlMATAMOROS$417$3,1847.64x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlTrain9$417$3,1847.64x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black PearlTrain9$417$3,1847.64x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AK-47 | Crane Flightweapon · pinkDeath13$404$17.940.04x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pinkDeath13$404$7.170.02x
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDeath13$405$30.600.08x
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$405$1270.31x
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red$405$2590.64x
AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$405$44.250.11x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$405$7431.83x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl$405$3,0177.45x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkDeath13$405$6.740.02x
Sticker | Lorenasticker · pink$405$2.360.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $3,246 (7.68x)