RATS

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.80

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.57 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.81%

5,196 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.96%±9.90695 openings

7 days

83.61%±4.324,362 openings

30 days

83.81%±3.895,196 openings

since tracking started

83.81%±3.895,196 openings

67.5%78.0%88.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	695	77.96%±9.90	−1.9σ	odds
7d	4,362	83.61%±4.32	−1.7σ	odds
30d	5,196	83.81%±3.89	−1.8σ	odds
All	5,196	83.81%±3.89	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,199 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$54.24	1.4%	2	2.1	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$48.05	1.4%	4	2.3	1.71×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,923	$41.69	1.4%	2	2.7	0.74×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,205	$25.94	1.4%	3	4.3	0.70×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 952	$20.29	1.4%	4	5.5	0.73×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 909	$19.46	1.4%	7	5.7	1.22×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$15.57	0.2%	1	1.0	0.96×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,961	$9.69	0.3%	2	2.7	0.75×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$7.69	0.4%	5	4.2	1.20×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 478	$6.43	0.9%	3	10.9	0.28×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 158	$6.18	2.5%	38	32.9	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 142	$5.57	2.5%	37	36.5	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 136	$5.33	2.5%	45	38.2	1.18×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 136	$5.30	2.5%	44	38.4	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 127	$4.95	2.5%	61	41.1	1.49×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 116	$4.53	2.5%	61	44.9	1.36×
Sticker \| Chrome Domesticker · violet	1 in 13	$2.84	13.7%	296	396.0	0.75×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$2.72	4.5%	286	134.4	2.13×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	15.3%	$2.60	25.2%	291	794.4	0.37×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.60	3.1%	86	158.2	0.54×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$1.48	3.2%	108	176.4	0.61×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$1.37	2.9%	118	174.5	0.68×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.36	2.9%	108	176.2	0.61×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$1.31	3.8%	151	240.6	0.63×
Negev \| dev_texture (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 76	$0.79	0.7%	52	68.8	0.76×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$0.76	1.2%	92	132.1	0.70×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$0.66	1.3%	103	160.9	0.64×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 30	$0.63	1.3%	110	171.7	0.64×
Negev \| dev_texture (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.45	0.8%	102	151.2	0.67×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.5%	$0.45	3.0%	625	546.6	1.14×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.5%	$0.45	3.0%	592	546.6	1.08×
Negev \| dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.44	0.8%	97	156.1	0.62×
Negev \| dev_texture (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.44	0.8%	93	156.1	0.60×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	11.3%	$0.38	2.7%	623	584.9	1.07×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/rats, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · graydenis$1.80$0.380.21x4m

Negev | dev_textureweapon · violetdenis$1.80$0.490.27x4m

M249 | Nebula Crusaderweapon · violetdenis$1.80$1.821.01x4m

Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violetdenis$1.80$0.450.25x4m

Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray☣Zypki☣$1.80$0.380.21x5m

MAC-10 | Last Diveweapon · restricteddenis$1.80$1.540.86x5m

Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · graydenis$1.80$0.380.21x5m

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classifieddenis$1.80$5.573.09x5m

Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · graydenis$1.80$0.380.21x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$1.80	87.50%	34
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$1.80	87.06%	34
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$1.80	86.70%	34
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.80	87.40%	34
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.80	87.19%	34
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.80	87.03%	34
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.80	87.63%	34
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.80	87.40%	34
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.80	87.93%	34
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.80	87.05%	34
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.80	87.06%	34
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.80	87.29%	34
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.80	87.26%	34
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.80	87.32%	34
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.80	87.58%	34
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.80	87.34%	34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.80	86.66%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%red 0.1%restricted 6.0%classified 1.4%#d32ee6 0.1%Mythical 2.6%violet 50.3%Legendary 0.7%pink 0.7%mil spec 0.8%#8847ff 25.9%gray 11.3%best hit —