RAZOR

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$8.69

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.60 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.91%

5,003 openings, odds method

Variance

6.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.62%±17.13794 openings

7 days

81.71%±7.134,402 openings

30 days

81.91%±6.695,003 openings

since tracking started

81.91%±6.695,003 openings

71.0%88.8%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	794	88.62%±17.1	+0.1σ	odds
7d	4,402	81.71%±7.13	−1.6σ	odds
30d	5,003	81.91%±6.69	−1.6σ	odds
All	5,003	81.91%±6.69	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,008 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,697	2.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · sunny · Phase 4	1 in 1,667	$244	1.9%	3	3.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$137	1.8%	0	5.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$125	1.8%	6	5.5	1.09×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$114	1.8%	4	6.0	0.67×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 769	$111	1.9%	7	6.5	1.08×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$110	1.9%	5	6.5	0.77×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$81.04	1.8%	6	8.5	0.70×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 500	$68.49	1.8%	8	10.0	0.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 476	$65.58	1.8%	5	10.5	0.48×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 455	$63.61	1.8%	9	11.0	0.82×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 455	$63.39	1.8%	4	11.0	0.36×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 286	$39.89	1.8%	12	17.5	0.68×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$20.70	13.2%	271	242.9	1.12×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$15.79	6.3%	115	152.7	0.75×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 15	$15.12	13.2%	309	332.5	0.93×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$14.53	6.9%	125	180.3	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$6.39	3.1%	142	186.3	0.76×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$6.24	2.3%	125	142.7	0.88×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$6.11	2.4%	97	147.2	0.66×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$6.02	2.4%	95	150.2	0.63×
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 10	$4.82	6.1%	488	484.3	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$4.71	3.5%	220	281.4	0.78×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.3%	$4.15	5.6%	488	513.8	0.95×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	12.8%	$2.40	4.0%	639	640.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	13.9%	$1.96	3.6%	721	694.1	1.04×
Sticker \| Cedar Creeksticker · violet	15.1%	$1.56	3.1%	754	757.7	1.00×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/razor, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · graydenis$8.69$1.960.23x5m

Sticker | Cedar Creeksticker · violetdenis$8.69$1.560.18x5m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pinknusuntian #ianixxx$8.69$4.150.48x1h

G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · grayゼロツー$8.69$4.820.55x2h

G3SG1 | Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · grayゼロツー$8.69$4.790.55x2h

Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$8.69$6.450.74x2h

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$8.69$4.080.47x2h

MP7 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray$8.69$1.960.23x2h

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pinkBarbituricoo!$8.69$15.111.74x3h

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryBarbituricoo!$8.69$15.121.74x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$8.69	87.50%	27
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$8.69	86.89%	27
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$8.69	87.52%	27
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.69	87.81%	27
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$8.69	87.21%	27
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$8.69	87.10%	27
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$8.69	87.52%	27
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$8.69	87.53%	27
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$8.69	87.39%	27
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$8.69	87.64%	27
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$8.69	87.44%	27
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$8.69	87.25%	27
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$8.69	87.25%	27
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$8.69	87.89%	27
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$8.69	88.03%	27
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$8.69	88.02%	27
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.69	86.89%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%sunny 0.1%red 0.1%gold 0.2%mil spec 0.4%classified 20.3%Legendary 6.6%pink 19.6%gray 23.5%blue 12.8%violet 15.1%best hit —