RED SILK
A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.63 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.39%
59.1K openings, odds method
Variance
31.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 85
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.77% – 87.01%, 59,082 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 59.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/red-silk, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.93% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 87.31% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 87.04% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.70% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 87.32% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 87.60% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.46% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.41% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.71% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.07% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.12% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.94% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 88.00% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 86.99% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.38% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%gold 0.6%Immortal 0.1%epic 0.2%covert 0.8%rare 0.2%Ancient 0.4%Mythical 10.6%violet 38.0%blue 49.1%best hit $589 (196.3x)