RESTRICTED JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$38.32

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

85.49%

940 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

117 openings · below min

7 days

637 openings · below min

30 days

940 openings · below min

since tracking started

940 openings · below min

60.0%171.0%282.0%

Small sample. 940 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	117	180.64%±100.7	—	sample
7d	637	89.99%±29.4	—	sample
30d	940	85.49%±23.2	—	sample
All	940	85.49%±23.2	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$38.51$80220.82x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareEzQueL$38.51$80220.82x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$38.51$80220.82x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareEXCEL$38.30$80120.92x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareDavidbsy | CS Trader$38.30$80120.92x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedScout_Pro_Gustav$37.92$2.490.07x59m

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedScout_Pro_Gustav$37.92$16.700.44x1h

M249 | Nebula Crusaderweapon · violetMyo$37.92$3.810.10x1h

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMyo$37.92$16.700.44x1h

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMyo$37.92$46.271.22x1h

MAC-10 | Cat Fightweapon · violetMyo$37.92$0.990.03x1h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMyo$37.92$1.530.04x1h

SG 553 | Dragon Techweapon · violetMyo$37.92$0.460.01x1h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$37.71$0.820.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $802 (20.82x)