REVOLUTION
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$5.35
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $4.68 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.57%
6,178 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,183 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 5,000 | $360 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 196 | $137 | 14.9% | 24 | 31.5 | 0.76× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 76 | $53.21 | 14.9% | 81 | 81.0 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 69 | $48.05 | 14.9% | 93 | 89.7 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon | 1 in 24 | $16.85 | 14.9% | 310 | 255.4 | 1.21× |
| MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 21 | $14.59 | 14.9% | 291 | 294.9 | 0.99× |
| MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 11.2% | $5.32 | 12.7% | 658 | 692.5 | 0.95× |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 13.1% | $2.42 | 6.8% | 701 | 807.5 | 0.87× |
| M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 16.3% | $0.79 | 2.8% | 996 | 1009.7 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec | 18.9% | $0.38 | 1.5% | 1,131 | 1169.2 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 28.3% | $0.05 | 0.3% | 1,898 | 1750.4 | 1.08× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/revolution, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $5.35 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $5.35 | 87.83% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $5.35 | 87.37% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $5.35 | 87.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $5.35 | 87.28% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.35 | 87.62% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $5.35 | 87.77% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $5.35 | 87.63% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $5.35 | 87.37% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $5.35 | 87.03% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $5.35 | 87.27% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $5.35 | 87.45% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $5.35 | 87.73% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.35 | 87.89% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $5.35 | 87.56% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $5.35 | 87.40% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.35 | 88.02% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%red 0.5%covert 2.8%uncommon 4.1%Legendary 4.8%Mythical 11.2%restricted 13.1%#8847ff 16.3%Mil Spec 18.9%blue 28.3%best hit —