ROCKET
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$4.05
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.54 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.82%
8,650 openings, odds method
Variance
59.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 60
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,679 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald | 1 in 10,000 | $2,003 | 5.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 341 | $379 | 31.3% | 27 | 25.4 | 1.06× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 73 | $80.48 | 31.3% | 103 | 119.5 | 0.86× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 64 | $70.44 | 31.2% | 128 | 136.3 | 0.94× |
| MP5-SD | Lime Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 96.7% | $0.02 | 0.5% | 8,418 | 8396.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/rocket, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.05 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.05 | 87.87% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.05 | 87.36% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.05 | 87.21% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.05 | 87.54% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.05 | 87.64% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.05 | 87.45% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.05 | 87.65% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.05 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.05 | 87.18% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.05 | 87.88% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.05 | 87.78% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.05 | 87.57% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.05 | 87.76% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.05 | 87.45% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.05 | 87.30% | 5 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.05 | 87.17% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.3%gray 96.7%best hit $2,066 (510.1x)