SACRED LOTUS

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$135.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $118.12 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.97%

6,236 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.41%±18.151,427 openings

7 days

91.02%±9.725,066 openings

30 days

89.97%±8.696,236 openings

since tracking started

89.97%±8.696,236 openings

80.5%99.3%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,427	99.41%±18.2	+1.3σ	odds
7d	5,066	91.02%±9.72	+0.7σ	odds
30d	6,236	89.97%±8.69	+0.5σ	odds
All	6,236	89.97%±8.69	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,236 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$9,502	5.6%	5	4.4	1.15×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 588	$4,046	5.8%	25	10.6	2.36×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 400	$2,821	6.0%	18	15.6	1.15×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 303	$2,118	5.9%	19	20.6	0.92×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 227	$1,587	5.9%	24	27.4	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$1,390	5.9%	31	31.2	0.99×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 192	$1,328	5.8%	29	32.4	0.89×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 161	$1,119	5.9%	28	38.7	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 114	$787	5.9%	36	54.9	0.66×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 108	$745	5.9%	51	58.0	0.88×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 85	$588	5.9%	53	73.6	0.72×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 83	$572	5.9%	54	75.5	0.72×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$385	5.9%	89	112.2	0.79×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$85.30	6.5%	632	562.5	1.12×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11	$81.30	6.1%	632	555.0	1.14×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	10.3%	$49.23	4.3%	723	644.8	1.12×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	13.0%	$23.00	2.5%	792	810.7	0.98×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.0%	$14.25	1.8%	946	935.4	1.01×
P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	16.5%	$10.33	1.4%	941	1030.8	0.91×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted	18.3%	$7.01	1.1%	1,108	1141.8	0.97×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/sacred-lotus, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$135$9,98673.97x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSharaN$135$9,95473.74x8d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$135$9,71871.98x3d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$135$9,50270.38x18h

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$135$9,50170.38x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryUse Code Yosoykush 5000 LB$135$4,28431.73x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$135$4,28231.72x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$135$4,28231.72x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$135$4,24331.43x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$135$87.700.65x55s

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted$135$7.010.05x55s

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red$135$54.830.41x55s

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted$135$7.010.05x55s

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restrictedKEKKWW$135$7.010.05x55s

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPOORest$135$7.010.05x25m

AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covertPOORest$135$85.300.63x26m

AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientPOORest$135$81.300.60x26m

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPOORest$135$7.010.05x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$135	87.50%	20
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$135	87.09%	20
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$135	87.92%	20
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$135	87.27%	20
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$135	87.23%	20
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$135	87.55%	20
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$135	87.38%	20
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$135	87.85%	20
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$135	87.82%	20
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$135	87.45%	20
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$135	87.67%	20
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$135	87.94%	20
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$135	88.00%	20
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$135	87.49%	20
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$135	87.39%	20
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$135	87.61%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$135	87.38%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.1%legendary 2.0%rare 13.9%gold 0.9%Ancient 8.9%red 10.3%classified 15.0%violet 16.5%restricted 18.3%best hit $9,986 (73.97x)