SERPENT

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$59.95

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $52.46 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.02%

3,804 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.86%±9.11649 openings

7 days

86.09%±4.103,196 openings

30 days

86.02%±3.763,804 openings

since tracking started

86.02%±3.763,804 openings

74.0%83.8%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	649	83.86%±9.11	−0.8σ	odds
7d	3,196	86.09%±4.10	−0.7σ	odds
30d	3,804	86.02%±3.76	−0.8σ	odds
All	3,804	86.02%±3.76	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,804 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,012	0.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,319	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,001	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$921	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$915	0.7%	1	1.5	0.66×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$706	0.3%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$609	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$493	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$405	0.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,250	$400	0.6%	4	3.0	1.31×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$303	0.1%	2	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$289	0.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$264	0.2%	1	1.1	0.88×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$253	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$239	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$238	0.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 769	$237	0.6%	9	4.9	1.82×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$219	0.8%	2	7.2	0.28×
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$218	2.7%	3	24.3	0.12×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$214	2.0%	10	18.6	0.54×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$190	1.9%	17	20.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$187	0.7%	4	7.2	0.55×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$164	2.6%	22	31.6	0.70×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 278	$156	1.1%	9	13.7	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$154	1.9%	18	24.7	0.73×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$153	2.4%	19	30.8	0.62×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$150	1.5%	14	20.2	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$146	1.3%	14	17.1	0.82×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 175	$145	1.6%	12	21.7	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$144	1.3%	19	17.5	1.09×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$139	1.5%	17	22.1	0.77×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$135	3.7%	39	54.8	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$133	1.4%	14	20.5	0.68×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$126	1.1%	11	17.9	0.62×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$119	2.2%	20	36.9	0.54×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$114	4.6%	49	81.0	0.60×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$110	1.9%	25	35.4	0.71×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$94.65	2.2%	34	47.2	0.72×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$83.03	1.5%	13	36.1	0.36×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$82.85	1.6%	31	38.4	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$75.12	1.5%	28	39.2	0.71×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$73.13	0.4%	6	10.3	0.58×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$70.80	2.4%	39	68.1	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$70.60	1.6%	36	44.1	0.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 19	$70.44	6.9%	218	195.9	1.11×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$66.47	1.4%	34	42.6	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$64.85	1.7%	27	52.5	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$64.31	1.7%	26	53.3	0.49×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$58.32	2.6%	52	87.9	0.59×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$54.81	2.6%	65	94.0	0.69×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$54.24	3.5%	93	130.5	0.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$54.15	2.8%	75	101.6	0.74×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$53.32	2.6%	69	97.8	0.71×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$38.98	2.2%	68	114.5	0.59×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$36.63	2.3%	115	125.2	0.92×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$34.33	2.0%	75	113.4	0.66×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$23.31	0.8%	40	67.7	0.59×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 12	$16.85	2.6%	209	307.4	0.68×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$15.31	0.9%	72	122.1	0.59×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$15.28	0.9%	74	122.5	0.60×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$14.83	0.9%	77	127.8	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$13.55	0.8%	64	116.8	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	13.2%	$13.39	3.4%	506	502.1	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$12.59	0.8%	88	129.3	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$12.38	0.8%	80	132.4	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$12.18	0.8%	108	139.2	0.78×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/serpent, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$59.95$91515.27x17h

AK-47 | Fire Serpentweapon · covertsilvercrow$59.95$85014.17x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$59.95$73612.28x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · redCODE TOROCHO$59.95$1592.65x4m

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCODE TOROCHO$59.95$1372.28x6m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink$59.95$14.060.23x6m

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · redZevkLast`iN$59.95$1592.65x9m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glassweapon · pinkZevkLast`iN$59.95$12.640.21x9m

M4A4 | Desolate Spaceweapon · pinkZevkLast`iN$59.95$17.690.30x33m

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revengeweapon · redphase$59.95$45.690.76x40m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pinkK Real$59.95$13.390.22x40m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · redphase$59.95$64.191.07x40m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glassweapon · pinkK Real$59.95$12.640.21x40m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$59.95	87.50%	66
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$59.95	87.26%	66
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$59.95	87.62%	66
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$59.95	87.40%	66
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$59.95	87.27%	66
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$59.95	87.56%	66
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$59.95	87.81%	66
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$59.95	87.27%	66
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$59.95	87.57%	66
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$59.95	87.41%	66
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$59.95	87.51%	66
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$59.95	87.77%	66
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$59.95	87.49%	66
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$59.95	87.41%	66
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$59.95	87.42%	66
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$59.95	87.65%	66
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$59.95	87.09%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 50.2%gold 0.1%classified 22.4%pink 19.3%uncommon 8.1%best hit $915 (15.27x)