SHADOW
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$2.83
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.48 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.59%
4,511 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,514 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/shadow, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.83 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.83 | 87.24% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.83 | 88.22% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.83 | 87.48% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.83 | 87.65% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.83 | 87.55% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.83 | 87.91% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.83 | 87.99% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.83 | 87.53% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.83 | 87.69% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.83 | 88.15% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.83 | 87.33% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.83 | 87.39% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.83 | 87.33% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.83 | 87.73% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.83 | 87.62% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.83 | 87.30% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%red 0.0%classified 17.9%Mythical 7.9%violet 34.5%Legendary 5.8%pink 1.1%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 8.2%gray 5.0%grey 5.7%blue 12.7%best hit —